🐻⬇️🏀

McDaniel

Also known as: McDaniel
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1133 (#39) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1309 (#16) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1124 (#72) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +22.1 (#21) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +15.0 (#157) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.841 (#273) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +35.7 More → 0.994 (#84) NetEff +35.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +11.5 More → 0.791 (#277) AdjNet +11.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +10.9 More → 0.785 (#278) AdjNet +10.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 54.8 More → 0.637 (#282) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 54.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 48.7 More → 0.799 (#63) AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 48.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.878 (#79) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.872 (#77) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 110 | GP 21 More → 1260 (#38) RD 110 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Stevenson W 63 - 43
2025-11-08 vs Misericordia W 58 - 45
2025-11-11 vs York (PA) W 74 - 56
2025-11-13 @ St. Mary's (MD) W 80 - 60
2025-11-19 vs Notre Dame (MD) W 82 - 31
2025-11-22 vs Eastern W 73 - 38
2025-11-25 vs Alvernia W 77 - 37
2025-12-03 vs Dickinson L 57 - 59
2025-12-13 @ Hood W 62 - 44
2025-12-15 @ Stockton W 63 - 48
2026-01-10 vs Franklin & Marshall W 79 - 45
2026-01-14 @ Dickinson W 67 - 29
2026-01-17 vs Swarthmore W 57 - 47
2026-01-21 vs Johns Hopkins L 56 - 72
2026-01-28 vs Gettysburg L 60 - 65
2026-01-31 @ Franklin & Marshall W 54 - 44
2026-02-04 vs Washington Col. L 45 - 50
2026-02-07 @ Haverford W 57 - 37

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Elaina Beckett - 14 32.2 20.0 7.3 3.4 2.5 1.3 2.1 15.6 16.7 218 12.8 57.4 52.8 31.0 74.4 3.88 59.1 56.9
Teya McConnaha - 18 26.5 13.7 9.4 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 12.1 12.0 217 10.3 42.0 45.6 43.2 78.9 2.19 52.8 50.0
Lauren Cavoli - 18 29.6 11.1 2.2 3.3 2.1 0.2 1.9 11.4 5.4 207 9.9 40.4 34.5 27.6 73.7 2.3 44.7 41.5
Raegan Lenz - 18 29.6 8.8 6.6 4.6 1.1 2.8 2.6 5.8 15.4 259 12.3 45.6 58.1 0.0 63.2 4.1 60.7 58.1
Riley Stigler - 10 6.1 3.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 3.9 0.3 34 2.8 240.0 33.3 25.8 50.0 -0.61 43.9 43.6
Kendra Mason - 18 24.2 3.1 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.2 4.3 3.4 162 7.7 34.3 28.2 28.1 60.0 0.05 34.9 34.0
Carli Vogel - 18 15.4 2.8 2.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.8 64 3.0 19.6 56.8 0.0 64.3 -2.89 59.1 56.8
Payton Cramer - 18 12.6 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.6 0.6 34 1.6 12.7 28.1 26.1 25.0 -1.53 37.3 37.5
Jordan McLean - 17 17.6 2.5 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.1 1.5 3.5 2.2 146 7.3 37.2 25.4 28.6 50.0 0.91 32.1 28.8
Riley Waite - 16 11.4 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.6 60 3.3 22.8 32.3 25.0 50.0 2.6 38.6 37.1
Kate Roberts - 8 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 -3 -0.4 -26.5 50.0 33.3 100.0 -0.34 62.1 58.3
Zion Oge - 11 5.5 0.7 1.9 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.2 6 0.5 24.2 50.0 0 0.0 0.29 45.0 50.0
Jessica Pronchick - 10 4.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 -8 -0.7 -58.0 25.0 0 0 -0.29 25.0 25.0
Lily Hines - 3 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -14 -2.8 -148.7 0.0 0.0 0 -0.21 0.0 0.0
Emily Lockard - 4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2 -1.2 -8 -2.0 -48.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.65 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG