Mary Hardin-Baylor
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 856 (#453) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 948 (#401) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 983 (#504) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.8 (#152) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +7.6 (#238) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.588 (#413) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.289 (#418) | NetEff -6.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.769 (#285) | AdjNet +10.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.766 (#285) | AdjNet +10.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.637 (#281) | AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 60.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.604 (#226) | AdjO 60.5 | AdjD 55.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.596 (#298) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.607 (#291) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 993 (#318) | RD 176 | GP 3 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Hardin-Simmons | L | 56 - 69 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Howard Payne | L | 59 - 60 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | East Tex. Baptist | W | 56 - 49 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josie Bruder | - | 3 | 31.5 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 72 | 3.8 | 23.3 | 32.4 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 0.75 | 46.4 | 41.2 |
| Rachel Okoye | - | 3 | 29.5 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 10.7 | -11 | -0.5 | -3.0 | 46.7 | 0.0 | 71.4 | 0.44 | 49.9 | 46.7 |
| Amillion Fowler | - | 3 | 23.4 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 15 | 1.0 | 8.8 | 36.4 | 22.2 | 71.4 | -1.25 | 45.7 | 42.4 |
| Natalia Galvan | - | 3 | 21.9 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 52 | 2.5 | 42.2 | 40.9 | 60.0 | 0 | 0.69 | 54.5 | 54.5 |
| Karlee Cronk | - | 3 | 23.6 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 11.3 | 25 | 1.1 | 11.5 | 87.5 | 0 | 45.5 | 0.45 | 74.0 | 87.5 |
| Katelen Brooks | - | 2 | 17.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | -25 | -1.8 | -15.5 | 28.6 | 37.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 39.3 | 39.3 |
| Kayla Johns-McGarity | - | 2 | 21.9 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 25 | 6.2 | 26.1 | 40.0 | 0 | 20.0 | -0.26 | 36.9 | 40.0 |
| Pierce Sheppler | - | 3 | 11.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 35 | 2.3 | 45.0 | 28.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 28.6 | 28.6 |
| Marissa Hernandez | - | 2 | 23.1 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 24 | 1.8 | 20.9 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.36 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Madyson Solis | - | 3 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | -39 | -1.9 | -20.7 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.91 | 20.5 | 25.0 |
| Mia Lozoya | - | 1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 | -27 | -1.5 | -123.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.59 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kyley Atkinson | - | 2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -15 | -1.5 | -31.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.03 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG