Lynchburg
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 915 (#385) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1046 (#253) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1007 (#382) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.2 (#159) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +7.0 (#248) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.591 (#410) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.682 (#286) | NetEff +5.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.455 (#397) | AdjNet -1.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.443 (#394) | AdjNet -1.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.453 (#399) | AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 65.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.603 (#229) | AdjO 62.7 | AdjD 58.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.673 (#238) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.663 (#248) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1073 (#219) | RD 101 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Marymount (VA) | W | 69 - 53 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Methodist | W | 83 - 72 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | N.C. Wesleyan | W | 65 - 50 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | William Peace | W | 77 - 70 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Wash. & Lee | L | 54 - 67 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Meredith | W | 78 - 62 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Hollins | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Mary Washington | W | 60 - 51 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Regent | W | 75 - 32 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Averett | W | 68 - 30 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | L | 61 - 76 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Shenandoah | L | 51 - 72 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Roanoke | W | 67 - 43 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | East. Mennonite | W | 68 - 55 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Randolph | W | 67 - 42 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Randolph-Macon | L | 58 - 68 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Guilford | L | 60 - 70 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Wash. & Lee | L | 33 - 67 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audra Petty | - | 17 | 27.6 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 13.4 | 9.8 | -32 | -1.5 | -6.9 | 43.4 | 31.2 | 78.9 | 1.97 | 54.8 | 50.0 |
| Kate Littlejohn | - | 13 | 29.2 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 10.1 | 7.8 | -40 | -2.9 | -8.0 | 45.8 | 33.3 | 70.5 | 3.09 | 55.4 | 50.4 |
| Rileigh Weaver | - | 1 | 33.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | -103 | -6.4 | -83.0 | 45.5 | 0 | 75.0 | 1.6 | 50.9 | 45.5 |
| Juliona Mabie | - | 1 | 31.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | -72 | -4.8 | -106.3 | 38.5 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.76 | 43.2 | 38.5 |
| Bree Spainhour | - | 14 | 25.5 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 7.8 | 10.0 | -71 | -3.7 | -20.4 | 45.9 | 0.0 | 76.8 | 0.28 | 54.9 | 45.9 |
| Maddy Jenisch | - | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -70 | -4.4 | -47.1 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 75.0 | 0.92 | 42.5 | 35.0 |
| Brooke Cason | - | 17 | 31.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 7.7 | -111 | -5.0 | -24.8 | 34.3 | 29.5 | 50.0 | 0.23 | 45.1 | 44.9 |
| Taylor Brown | - | 16 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | -56 | -9.3 | -63.6 | 40.5 | 0 | 77.8 | -6.5 | 44.9 | 40.5 |
| Emma Terry | - | 1 | 37.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -133 | -8.3 | -78.6 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Jenna Steadman | - | 1 | 34.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -108 | -6.8 | -68.3 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.73 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Aly Schaffer | - | 10 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.3 | -24 | -2.0 | -189.5 | 31.8 | 25.7 | 100.0 | -0.88 | 42.8 | 42.0 |
| Caitlin Canada | - | 12 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | -19 | -1.6 | -18.5 | 32.0 | 16.7 | 71.4 | -0.26 | 39.2 | 34.0 |
| Ashley Vandergrift | - | 13 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 0.2 | -35 | -2.5 | -16.6 | 25.4 | 25.0 | 75.0 | -2.49 | 36.8 | 33.9 |
| Kayla Terry | - | 8 | 14.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 15 | 1.9 | 19.7 | 30.8 | 33.3 | 75.0 | -0.22 | 45.0 | 42.3 |
| Ainsley Phillips | - | 1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -88 | -5.9 | -266.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -1.44 | 104.2 | 100.0 |
| McKenna Huff | - | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | -26 | -1.7 | -92.7 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.46 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Selah Parker | - | 17 | 20.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | -47 | -2.5 | -15.8 | 39.0 | 25.0 | 84.2 | 0.33 | 49.6 | 40.2 |
| Jacquelyn Jakubecy | - | 17 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 | -27 | -1.3 | -22.6 | 38.7 | 0 | 79.2 | -1.67 | 51.7 | 38.7 |
| Hannah Warschaw | - | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -47 | -4.3 | -108.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.37 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Madison Hoffman | - | 15 | 14.4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | -41 | -2.4 | -25.4 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 2.4 | 44.8 | 40.0 |
| Natalie Poole | - | 10 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 22 | 1.7 | 45.5 | 21.7 | 9.1 | 100.0 | 0.89 | 27.2 | 23.9 |
| Kayla Sledge | - | 10 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -4 | -0.3 | -3.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 83.3 | 0.28 | 34.9 | 25.0 |
| Jenna Sawyers | - | 8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 10 | 1.1 | 85.4 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -1.31 | 51.9 | 42.9 |
| Emily Evans | - | 6 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | -4 | -0.7 | -22.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.55 | 20.5 | 0.0 |
| Allyson Booth | - | 5 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 7 | 1.2 | 37.4 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.0 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Julianna Fisher | - | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -80 | -4.4 | -93.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.56 | 0 | 0 |
| Mackenzie Wharton | - | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -72 | -4.8 | -151.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.91 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG