🐻⬇️🏀

Lynchburg

Season:
Also known as: Lynchburg Hornets
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1079 (#132) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1030 (#315) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1039 (#214) HCA +56 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1003 (#433) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +2.9 (#85) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +4.0 (#289) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +0.6 (#341) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.449 (#502) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -2.3 More → 0.434 (#383) AdjNet -2.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.2 More → 0.466 (#365) AdjNet -1.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 76.2 More → 0.478 (#364) AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 76.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.0 | AdjD 73.8 More → 0.638 (#167) AdjO 80.0 | AdjD 73.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 74.9 More → 0.494 (#423) AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 74.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.577 (#335) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.485 (#414) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.591 (#326) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.486 (#419) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 22 More → 1056 (#283) RD 101 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.