Little Rock
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1022 (#195) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1068 (#203) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 986 (#342) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1050 (#181) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.2 (#206) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.5 (#402) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.980 (#165) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.891 (#250) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.980 (#104) | NetEff +28.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.766 (#287) | AdjNet +10.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.462 (#393) | AdjNet -1.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.750 (#295) | AdjNet +9.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.446 (#393) | AdjNet -1.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.636 (#283) | AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 59.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.501 (#373) | AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 65.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.622 (#209) | AdjO 65.1 | AdjD 59.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.483 (#392) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.513 (#369) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 984 (#334) | RD 100 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Wooster | L | 58 - 59 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Bethany (WV) | L | 59 - 76 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Otterbein | L | 54 - 80 |
| 2025-11-20 | vs | Hiram | L | 66 - 71 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Wash. & Jeff. | L | 50 - 68 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Penn St.-Behrend | W | 68 - 64 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Carlow | W | 88 - 36 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Baldwin Wallace | L | 45 - 66 |
| 2025-12-22 | vs | Hendrix | W | 73 - 52 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Carnegie Mellon | L | 55 - 66 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Hilbert | W | 82 - 56 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Mount Aloysius | W | 81 - 59 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Penn St.-Altoona | W | 72 - 64 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Pitt.-Greensburg | W | 87 - 41 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Hilbert | W | 78 - 38 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Carlow | W | 93 - 51 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Pitt.-Bradford | W | 119 - 36 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Mount Aloysius | W | 64 - 55 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Penn St.-Altoona | L | 54 - 61 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazmine Dunn | - | 18 | 37.3 | 19.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 16.5 | 13.9 | 132 | 6.0 | 31.8 | 41.4 | 38.5 | 83.3 | 1.61 | 52.9 | 48.5 |
| Catherine Kelly | - | 17 | 36.7 | 16.4 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 171 | 9.0 | 47.5 | 49.8 | 39.1 | 80.4 | 2.6 | 59.0 | 55.6 |
| Jordan Holman | - | 1 | 28.6 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 28.6 | 100.0 | - | 47.4 | 43.8 |
| Nautica Burwell | - | 18 | 31.1 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 132 | 6.0 | 41.8 | 30.7 | 25.8 | 68.3 | 5.75 | 38.8 | 35.7 |
| J'La Kizart | - | 18 | 30.2 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 8.4 | 14.6 | 93 | 4.2 | 35.1 | 48.0 | 33.3 | 45.2 | 2.21 | 49.7 | 49.3 |
| Brenna Burk | - | 1 | 28.9 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 28.6 | 100.0 | - | 50.6 | 44.4 |
| Destinee Salgado | - | 1 | 21.3 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Mya Cotto | - | 1 | 32.3 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 56.2 | 56.2 |
| Naomi Smitherman | - | 1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Kaitlyn Nease | - | 17 | 23.2 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 67 | 3.4 | 27.4 | 36.6 | 0.0 | 68.8 | -0.25 | 40.2 | 36.6 |
| Lidia Belmonte Hurtado | - | 1 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 77.3 | 83.3 |
| Alaina Payne | - | 1 | 28.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 84 | 4.2 | 26.6 | 33.3 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.81 | 51.5 | 33.3 |
| Jarahle Daniels | - | 1 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 109 | 5.7 | 51.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.76 | 106.4 | 100.0 |
| Danaeja James | - | 18 | 18.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 73 | 3.5 | 40.8 | 32.1 | 100.0 | 62.2 | 3.49 | 41.5 | 33.0 |
| Emily Fisher | - | 17 | 16.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | -80 | -4.0 | -39.8 | 27.8 | 18.6 | 50.0 | 1.85 | 34.9 | 33.3 |
| Taelor Coxford | - | 1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Ashley Lester | - | 1 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Pearson McVay | - | 1 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Addison Odille | - | 17 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 74 | 4.1 | 59.3 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 1.46 | 51.4 | 50.0 |
| Iyarah Hicks | - | 3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.94 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Blessing Teamer | - | 1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Alexa Harr | - | 3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 | -0.7 | -171.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Anayla Jordan | - | 1 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | -6 | -6.0 | -11.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG