🐻⬇️🏀

Little Rock

Also known as: Little Rock
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1022 (#195) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1068 (#203) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 986 (#342) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1050 (#181) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -1.2 (#206) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -2.5 (#402) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.980 (#165) -
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.891 (#250) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +28.9 More → 0.980 (#104) NetEff +28.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.3 More → 0.766 (#287) AdjNet +10.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -1.3 More → 0.462 (#393) AdjNet -1.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.3 More → 0.750 (#295) AdjNet +9.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.8 More → 0.446 (#393) AdjNet -1.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 59.2 More → 0.636 (#283) AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 59.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 65.9 More → 0.501 (#373) AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 65.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.1 | AdjD 59.6 More → 0.622 (#209) AdjO 65.1 | AdjD 59.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.483 (#392) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.513 (#369) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 23 More → 984 (#334) RD 100 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Wooster L 58 - 59
2025-11-12 @ Bethany (WV) L 59 - 76
2025-11-14 @ Otterbein L 54 - 80
2025-11-20 vs Hiram L 66 - 71
2025-11-25 vs Wash. & Jeff. L 50 - 68
2025-12-03 @ Penn St.-Behrend W 68 - 64
2025-12-10 vs Carlow W 88 - 36
2025-12-17 @ Baldwin Wallace L 45 - 66
2025-12-22 vs Hendrix W 73 - 52
2025-12-30 vs Carnegie Mellon L 55 - 66
2026-01-10 vs Hilbert W 82 - 56
2026-01-14 vs Mount Aloysius W 81 - 59
2026-01-17 vs Penn St.-Altoona W 72 - 64
2026-01-21 @ Pitt.-Greensburg W 87 - 41
2026-01-24 @ Hilbert W 78 - 38
2026-01-28 @ Carlow W 93 - 51
2026-01-31 vs Pitt.-Bradford W 119 - 36
2026-02-04 @ Mount Aloysius W 64 - 55
2026-02-07 @ Penn St.-Altoona L 54 - 61

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jazmine Dunn - 18 37.3 19.3 5.6 5.1 2.8 0.2 2.6 16.5 13.9 132 6.0 31.8 41.4 38.5 83.3 1.61 52.9 48.5
Catherine Kelly - 17 36.7 16.4 5.8 1.5 1.5 0.0 1.8 12.5 10.8 171 9.0 47.5 49.8 39.1 80.4 2.6 59.0 55.6
Jordan Holman - 1 28.6 16.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 16.0 7.0 - - - 37.5 28.6 100.0 - 47.4 43.8
Nautica Burwell - 18 31.1 10.6 5.8 1.4 1.3 0.3 2.3 12.7 4.5 132 6.0 41.8 30.7 25.8 68.3 5.75 38.8 35.7
J'La Kizart - 18 30.2 10.2 6.7 3.4 4.6 0.8 2.8 8.4 14.6 93 4.2 35.1 48.0 33.3 45.2 2.21 49.7 49.3
Brenna Burk - 1 28.9 10.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 6.0 - - - 33.3 28.6 100.0 - 50.6 44.4
Destinee Salgado - 1 21.3 10.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 15.0 -1.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Mya Cotto - 1 32.3 9.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 - - - 50.0 33.3 0 - 56.2 56.2
Naomi Smitherman - 1 9.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 - - - 66.7 0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Kaitlyn Nease - 17 23.2 7.5 5.8 0.9 1.3 2.4 2.6 8.5 6.8 67 3.4 27.4 36.6 0.0 68.8 -0.25 40.2 36.6
Lidia Belmonte Hurtado - 1 12.7 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 - - - 66.7 50.0 50.0 - 77.3 83.3
Alaina Payne - 1 28.9 4.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 11.0 84 4.2 26.6 33.3 0 100.0 1.81 51.5 33.3
Jarahle Daniels - 1 11.1 4.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 109 5.7 51.5 100.0 0 100.0 1.76 106.4 100.0
Danaeja James - 18 18.7 3.3 3.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.5 73 3.5 40.8 32.1 100.0 62.2 3.49 41.5 33.0
Emily Fisher - 17 16.6 3.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 1.7 4.2 1.1 -80 -4.0 -39.8 27.8 18.6 50.0 1.85 34.9 33.3
Taelor Coxford - 1 4.4 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Ashley Lester - 1 8.4 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Pearson McVay - 1 6.8 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Addison Odille - 17 8.9 1.7 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 74 4.1 59.3 50.0 0.0 60.0 1.46 51.4 50.0
Iyarah Hicks - 3 5.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 - - - 100.0 0 0 -0.94 100.0 100.0
Blessing Teamer - 1 7.7 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Alexa Harr - 3 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2 -0.7 -171.4 0 0 0 -0.57 0 0
Anayla Jordan - 1 14.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 -2.0 -6 -6.0 -11.5 0.0 0.0 0 -1.54 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG