Lincoln (CA)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 823 (#500) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 847 (#482) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 785 (#680) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -9.9 (#246) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -8.9 (#499) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.056 (#561) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.018 (#610) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.208 (#520) | AdjNet -11.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.016 (#680) | AdjNet -35.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.222 (#510) | AdjNet -10.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.016 (#676) | AdjNet -34.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.334 (#522) | AdjO 60.2 | AdjD 67.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.087 (#695) | AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 87.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.301 (#612) | AdjO 56.4 | AdjD 65.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.218 (#588) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.216 (#595) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 785 (#480) | RD 68 | GP 62 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Wichita St. | L | 42 - 96 |
| 2025-11-06 | @ | Coppin St. | L | 47 - 80 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Millersville | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | King (TN) | W | 92 - 45 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Thomas More | L | 43 - 62 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Converse | W | 86 - 41 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 64 - 69 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Shippensburg | L | 55 - 59 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Haskell | W | 66 - 48 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Wilmington (DE) | W | 76 - 68 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Harris-Stowe | W | 82 - 45 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | North Georgia | W | 51 - 50 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Virginia-Lynchburg | W | 66 - 59 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Clayton St. | W | 73 - 60 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Northwest Mo. St. | L | 50 - 61 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Bloomsburg | L | 41 - 71 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Lenoir-Rhyne | W | 88 - 77 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Southwest Baptist | W | 59 - 54 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Shaw | L | 57 - 61 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Lander | L | 51 - 70 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Missouri S&T | L | 48 - 55 |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | East Stroudsburg | L | 56 - 75 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Upper Iowa | L | 67 - 90 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Lewis | W | 67 - 65 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Catawba | L | 51 - 54 |
| 2025-12-07 | vs | Johnson C. Smith | L | 49 - 50 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Mars Hill | W | 109 - 69 |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Emporia St. | L | 64 - 74 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Wingate | W | 69 - 65 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | Winston-Salem | L | 47 - 58 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Emory & Henry | W | 85 - 61 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Fort Lauderdale | W | 77 - 57 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Anderson (SC) | W | 72 - 62 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Nova Southeastern | L | 56 - 96 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | UNC Pembroke | W | 66 - 54 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Truman St. | L | 56 - 69 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Dist. Columbia | L | 52 - 58 |
| 2026-01-05 | vs | Livingstone | L | 52 - 74 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Tusculum | W | 72 - 44 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Shaw | L | 54 - 65 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Newberry | W | 65 - 50 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Claflin | L | 34 - 68 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Drury | L | 49 - 86 |
| 2026-01-12 | @ | Fayetteville St. | L | 50 - 80 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Carson-Newman | L | 58 - 76 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Bowie St. | L | 55 - 65 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Coker | W | 72 - 58 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Mo.-St. Louis | L | 45 - 92 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Elizabeth City St. | L | 50 - 60 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Maryville (MO) | L | 37 - 74 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Bluefield St. | L | 68 - 102 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | McKendree | L | 68 - 79 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Virginia St. | L | 49 - 54 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Ill. Springfield | L | 48 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Virginia Union | L | 53 - 68 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | UIndy | L | 41 - 71 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Lewis | L | 56 - 62 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Virginia St. | L | 71 - 81 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Upper Iowa | L | 59 - 79 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cailynn Dilosa | - | 1 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 41.2 | 71.4 | 50.0 | - | 55.9 | 55.9 |
| Kamil Collier | - | 15 | 32.8 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 178 | 8.9 | 46.2 | 48.0 | 28.6 | 79.5 | 3.15 | 54.8 | 49.0 |
| Laini Joseph | - | 11 | 32.6 | 15.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 14.3 | 7.7 | -24 | -2.0 | -9.7 | 39.5 | 30.4 | 82.9 | 0.95 | 50.5 | 46.2 |
| Alexa Smiddy | - | 15 | 33.4 | 13.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 179 | 8.5 | 45.8 | 40.7 | 33.7 | 72.6 | 2.57 | 53.8 | 49.1 |
| Kaziah Akinniyi | - | 23 | 30.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 13.0 | 4.2 | -112 | -4.7 | -24.5 | 30.0 | 25.0 | 78.0 | 0.35 | 42.1 | 33.5 |
| Lexi Patty | - | 14 | 32.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 187 | 9.3 | 55.2 | 44.3 | 26.0 | 76.9 | 3.01 | 52.7 | 48.7 |
| Alivia Montgomery | - | 1 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 36 | 1.8 | 35.9 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.16 | 41.7 | 27.3 |
| Alaila Walker | - | 15 | 28.6 | 10.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 11.9 | 0.5 | -62 | -3.9 | -11.0 | 30.2 | 28.7 | 76.9 | 1.26 | 41.7 | 38.8 |
| Hallie Williamson | - | 19 | 24.8 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 10.9 | 1.8 | -143 | -6.8 | -23.8 | 32.9 | 30.0 | 80.0 | -2.24 | 42.9 | 40.8 |
| Isis Sanders | - | 16 | 31.4 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 2.3 | -142 | -7.9 | -31.6 | 28.6 | 25.7 | 81.2 | -2.97 | 40.6 | 36.3 |
| Hunter Conway | - | 23 | 27.7 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | -174 | -7.2 | -41.9 | 32.7 | 45.5 | 70.3 | -0.82 | 41.5 | 35.2 |
| J'Lessa Jordan | - | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 191 | 8.7 | 29.8 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.28 | 45.7 | 57.1 |
| Asia Barr | - | 15 | 26.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 98 | 4.7 | 39.2 | 33.3 | 28.7 | 66.7 | 0.36 | 46.5 | 43.4 |
| Bella Borgos | - | 19 | 21.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 1.2 | -73 | -3.5 | -19.5 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 78.6 | 0.57 | 42.5 | 38.8 |
| Keiara Anderson | - | 15 | 27.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 161 | 7.7 | 52.0 | 40.9 | 36.2 | 82.4 | 2.21 | 58.1 | 55.1 |
| Serenity Burgess | - | 23 | 26.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | -147 | -6.4 | -34.7 | 39.7 | 26.9 | 54.0 | 1.68 | 44.5 | 42.1 |
| Anyia Gibson | - | 14 | 23.0 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 7.3 | -91 | -6.1 | -58.1 | 50.0 | 0 | 48.1 | -0.59 | 50.7 | 50.0 |
| Taelyn Smith | - | 19 | 27.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 5.4 | -91 | -4.3 | -16.0 | 35.5 | 25.0 | 60.0 | 0.92 | 44.8 | 37.6 |
| Kallie Housley | - | 11 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 49 | 3.1 | 32.9 | 48.7 | 48.1 | 85.7 | 1.29 | 67.7 | 65.4 |
| Kiara Cabrera | - | 17 | 18.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 1.1 | -100 | -5.3 | -20.4 | 32.7 | 11.1 | 72.7 | -0.25 | 37.8 | 33.7 |
| Ariana Makumi | - | 6 | 22.9 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 5.8 | -12 | -1.7 | -5.5 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 57.1 | -0.04 | 27.6 | 22.0 |
| Maleiya Hill | - | 15 | 14.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 191 | 9.6 | 55.7 | 50.0 | 37.5 | 77.8 | 3.15 | 62.1 | 53.9 |
| Aaliyah Smith | - | 16 | 17.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 32 | 1.5 | 9.8 | 25.6 | 17.6 | 63.6 | -3.43 | 34.2 | 27.4 |
| Cincear Parker | - | 2 | 15.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 27.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 31.3 | 27.3 |
| Kaleah Toran | - | 19 | 20.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | -138 | -6.6 | -29.4 | 27.5 | 13.3 | 65.0 | -0.97 | 37.9 | 30.0 |
| Riley Holliday | - | 23 | 23.1 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -179 | -7.5 | -71.3 | 29.3 | 0.0 | 52.7 | -1.22 | 35.7 | 29.3 |
| Ja'Laiyah Smith | - | 22 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.7 | -57 | -2.7 | -24.5 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 64.0 | 0.51 | 44.0 | 40.0 |
| Chase Giddings | - | 5 | 17.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 18 | 4.5 | 13.9 | 20.0 | 27.3 | 60.0 | 1.17 | 28.0 | 25.0 |
| Sariya Henry | - | 13 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 46 | 2.7 | 75.6 | 46.2 | 50.0 | 57.1 | -2.93 | 51.1 | 50.0 |
| Federica Lagana | - | 3 | 13.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 43 | 14.3 | 39.8 | 80.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 2.68 | 74.0 | 100.0 |
| Ajalon Gillard | - | 15 | 12.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 64 | 3.6 | 43.2 | 28.6 | 23.5 | 54.5 | -0.66 | 37.8 | 35.7 |
| Ahna Thomas | - | 3 | 14.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | -12 | -6.0 | -10.5 | 25.0 | 28.6 | 33.3 | -1.41 | 33.8 | 33.3 |
| T'Nyah Riggins | - | 19 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 0.2 | -111 | -5.8 | -80.6 | 26.7 | 17.9 | 88.9 | -3.15 | 39.0 | 30.8 |
| Aubree Laney | - | 6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.2 | 36.4 | 33.3 | 33.3 | -1.72 | 44.0 | 45.5 |
| Shyne Hall | - | 16 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | -0.4 | -45 | -3.0 | -81.4 | 19.2 | 20.0 | 62.5 | -0.73 | 28.8 | 26.0 |
| Jayla Dixon | - | 1 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -39 | -4.9 | -114.6 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -2.53 | 34.7 | 50.0 |
| Marchi Hunter | - | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 25.8 | 33.3 |
| Jayla Jackson | - | 1 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9 | 1.0 | 25.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.63 | 53.2 | 0.0 |
| Jasmine Shelton | - | 17 | 11.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -57 | -3.4 | -80.1 | 23.3 | 0 | 63.6 | -0.87 | 35.3 | 23.3 |
| Autumn Edison | - | 10 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 0.0 | 58.3 | - | 38.9 | 28.6 |
| Jasmin Shelton | - | 2 | 15.8 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 25.0 | 0.02 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| Kennedy Jones | - | 19 | 25.2 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 4.6 | -148 | -7.0 | -27.8 | 28.6 | 22.2 | 44.4 | -5.72 | 36.2 | 32.1 |
| Demaris Andrews | - | 22 | 8.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | -86 | -3.7 | -85.8 | 21.1 | 5.3 | 80.0 | -1.73 | 32.5 | 22.4 |
| Rachel Early | - | 10 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 23 | 1.8 | 13.6 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 25.0 | -0.34 | 20.6 | 20.0 |
| Ayden Smiddy | - | 4 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 4 | 0.5 | 17.6 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -0.26 | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| Sanna Moore | - | 16 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 11 | 0.7 | 72.7 | 38.5 | 40.0 | 0 | -0.71 | 53.8 | 53.8 |
| Anile Selmani | - | 4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -16 | -2.7 | -125.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.19 | 0 | 0 |
| Tori Evans | - | 1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Anjelle Kerr | - | 2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -1 | -1.0 | -7.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Janiya Brown | - | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 67 | 3.4 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Janiya Jones | - | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 68 | 3.1 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.94 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG