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Lake Forest

Season:
Also known as: Lake Forest
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 876 (#433) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 744 (#560) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 719 (#723) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -20.1 (#356) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -27.0 (#655) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.047 (#668) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -29.4 More → 0.015 (#550) NetEff -29.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -30.6 More → 0.028 (#631) AdjNet -30.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -30.8 More → 0.025 (#630) AdjNet -30.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 54.4 | AdjD 74.3 More → 0.141 (#634) AdjO 54.4 | AdjD 74.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 47.8 | AdjD 68.8 More → 0.129 (#696) AdjO 47.8 | AdjD 68.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.054 (#694) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.056 (#695) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 22 More → 591 (#567) RD 104 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.