Lake Forest
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1192 (#30) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1107 (#131) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1109 (#83) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.5 (#102) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.5 (#356) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.513 (#456) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.277 (#474) | AdjNet -8.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.306 (#446) | AdjNet -7.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.386 (#446) | AdjO 78.8 | AdjD 83.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.631 (#173) | AdjO 86.8 | AdjD 80.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.573 (#338) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.590 (#327) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1119 (#149) | RD 97 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | North Park | L | 87 - 93 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Wheaton (IL) | L | 89 - 93 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | MSOE | L | 86 - 93 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Illinois Tech | W | 87 - 74 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Macalester | W | 99 - 70 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Saint Mary's (MN) | W | 89 - 79 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | UChicago | L | 80 - 84 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Lawrence | L | 77 - 88 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Ripon | W | 74 - 69 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | North Central (IL) | W | 92 - 87 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Loras | W | 97 - 88 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Knox | W | 101 - 67 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Illinois Col. | W | 76 - 71 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cornell College | W | 94 - 74 |
| 2026-01-13 | vs | Beloit | W | 69 - 61 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Knox | W | 105 - 87 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Monmouth (IL) | L | 96 - 97 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Grinnell | L | 96 - 110 |
| 2026-01-27 | vs | Ripon | W | 88 - 81 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Cornell College | W | 91 - 67 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Beloit | W | 98 - 92 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Illinois Col. | W | 87 - 79 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Rodriguez | - | 22 | 29.2 | 20.9 | 9.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 13.3 | 19.0 | 99 | 4.7 | 22.9 | 60.4 | 33.3 | 75.4 | 1.19 | 64.9 | 60.6 |
| Alex Forowycz | - | 22 | 30.3 | 20.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 157 | 7.1 | 34.1 | 52.5 | 40.6 | 94.7 | 5.15 | 65.8 | 61.3 |
| Luke Arington | - | 22 | 22.4 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 102 | 4.6 | 29.6 | 46.0 | 45.6 | 86.0 | 0.18 | 69.1 | 65.2 |
| Coltrane Marchand | - | 22 | 24.5 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 64 | 2.9 | 18.7 | 42.6 | 15.9 | 68.8 | -0.63 | 51.8 | 44.8 |
| Marko Visnjevac | - | 22 | 23.8 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 77 | 3.5 | 19.8 | 51.4 | 43.3 | 83.9 | 1.17 | 69.2 | 63.3 |
| Alex Brown | - | 22 | 20.1 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 5.4 | -34 | -1.6 | -13.2 | 41.1 | 21.4 | 78.0 | -1.6 | 53.7 | 44.2 |
| Anthony Favia | - | 22 | 16.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 13 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 39.5 | 43.9 | 75.8 | 0.19 | 56.0 | 50.6 |
| Nikolas Popovic | - | 21 | 15.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 14 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 50.7 | 35.7 | 63.3 | 0.54 | 57.0 | 54.2 |
| Ben Bochicchio | - | 22 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 17 | 0.8 | 13.3 | 35.7 | 37.5 | 0 | -0.66 | 51.8 | 51.8 |
| Chase Honarvar | - | 22 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 3.7 | -36 | -1.6 | -23.0 | 44.0 | 0 | 60.0 | -1.78 | 47.6 | 44.0 |
| Bo Arnold | - | 9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 0.8 | 81.4 | 66.7 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.56 | 68.3 | 66.7 |
| Emersen Davis | - | 5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | -8 | -2.7 | -48.6 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 0 | -0.73 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Austin Green | - | 5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 24 | 3.0 | 1225.5 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Sam Hanus | - | 7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -4 | -0.7 | -97.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.24 | 34.0 | 40.0 |
| Jaxson Vicknair | - | 7 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 10 | 1.7 | 279.1 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Erti Selenica | - | 6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.4 | 102.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.56 | 0.0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG