La Roche
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1018 (#333) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 924 (#453) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1035 (#229) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -11.2 (#272) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -14.4 (#603) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.442 (#504) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.193 (#549) | AdjNet -12.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.188 (#547) | AdjNet -12.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.294 (#551) | AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 79.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.373 (#606) | AdjO 74.5 | AdjD 80.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.329 (#559) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.345 (#550) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1016 (#343) | RD 103 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Carnegie Mellon | L | 83 - 90 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Marietta | L | 86 - 100 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Manchester | W | 87 - 74 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Otterbein | L | 70 - 83 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Muskingum | L | 67 - 94 |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Trinity (TX) | L | 77 - 90 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Penn St.-Behrend | L | 71 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Alfred St. | W | 74 - 60 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Carlow | W | 89 - 65 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Pitt.-Bradford | L | 96 - 102 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Wash. & Jeff. | L | 77 - 99 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | SUNY Brockport | L | 64 - 85 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | CWRU | L | 78 - 97 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Hilbert | W | 79 - 72 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Mount Aloysius | W | 78 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Penn St.-Altoona | W | 106 - 102 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Pitt.-Greensburg | W | 80 - 77 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Hilbert | W | 75 - 56 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Carlow | W | 103 - 85 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Pitt.-Bradford | W | 95 - 92 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Mount Aloysius | W | 94 - 75 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Penn St.-Altoona | L | 60 - 62 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Epps | - | 21 | 31.4 | 17.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | -21 | -1.1 | -5.4 | 51.8 | 37.2 | 83.9 | 2.49 | 60.1 | 57.0 |
| Major Rainey | - | 22 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | -47 | -2.5 | -10.8 | 56.9 | 35.4 | 76.9 | -1.06 | 64.3 | 61.6 |
| Logan Golle | - | 21 | 32.3 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 9.5 | 6.4 | -40 | -2.1 | -10.2 | 45.2 | 36.8 | 68.8 | 0.76 | 55.7 | 53.3 |
| Cooper Rankin | - | 20 | 30.6 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 29 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 47.2 | 31.7 | 64.4 | 0.8 | 52.6 | 50.5 |
| Brandon Bell | - | 20 | 22.7 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 7.1 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 46.7 | 33.3 | 78.7 | 2.58 | 58.2 | 53.9 |
| Jefferson Moorefield-Brown Jr. | - | 12 | 18.5 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 | -25 | -2.8 | -40.1 | 52.7 | 39.3 | 66.7 | -1.08 | 61.9 | 60.1 |
| Jeston Beatty | - | 20 | 19.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 3.7 | -42 | -2.3 | -16.7 | 36.8 | 20.0 | 64.5 | -0.77 | 44.2 | 40.0 |
| Johnnie Shedrick Jr. | - | 4 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 6 | 1.2 | 67.9 | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.13 | 58.1 | 66.7 |
| Xavier Rigby | - | 3 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 40.0 | 66.7 | - | 69.4 | 66.7 |
| Kirkland Miller | - | 21 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 34 | 1.9 | 24.8 | 44.9 | 38.7 | 0 | 3.01 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| Jordyn Fougerousse | - | 22 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | -10 | -0.5 | -9.3 | 42.1 | 26.7 | 44.4 | 0.24 | 47.9 | 47.4 |
| Tanner Ashton | - | 9 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -36 | -4.5 | -472.1 | 23.1 | 27.3 | 50.0 | -1.21 | 41.8 | 34.6 |
| Shamar Simpson | - | 7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | -22 | -3.1 | -493.5 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -0.75 | 55.1 | 50.0 |
| Jericho Trout-Johnson | - | 7 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Jackson Gesford | - | 7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | -0.7 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG