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Knox Prairie Fire

Season: 2022
Also known as: Knox Prairie Fire
Program History

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 977 (#374) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 947 (#526) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More → 996 (#334) HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -16.8 (#742) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → -14.5 (#526) HCA +2.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.6 | AdjD 69.1 More → 0.467 (#392) AdjO 67.6 | AdjD 69.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.184 (#556) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.224 (#557) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 885 (#507) RD 350 | GP 1

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-15 @ SIU Edwardsville Cougars L 37 - 75

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D. Goodman D. Goodman - 1 29.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 8.0 - - - 0 0 0 -1.12 0 0
Cade Windham Cade Windham F 1 23.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 10.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jordan Rayner Jordan Rayner G 1 28.0 7.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 11.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
R. Nixon R. Nixon - 1 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
M. Bray M. Bray - 1 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
E. Crump E. Crump - 1 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Moore J. Moore - 1 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -48 -1.9 -8.5 0 0 0 1.7 0 0
David Eismark David Eismark F 1 16.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 -1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
C. DaCosta C. DaCosta - 1 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Brooks J. Brooks - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
K. Piepkorn K. Piepkorn - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Raphael Jalnaiz Raphael Jalnaiz PG 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
G. Tsahageas G. Tsahageas - 1 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Isaiah Lockett Isaiah Lockett G 1 13.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
S. Jin S. Jin - 1 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Anderson J. Anderson - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -98 -5.4 -9.6 0 0 0 0.63 0 0
Aidan Derry Aidan Derry F 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Matthew Garife Matthew Garife G 1 12.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Andrew Brown Andrew Brown G 1 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
A. Mendez A. Mendez - 1 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Sean Gallery Sean Gallery G 1 23.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
C. Faber C. Faber - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Alexander Baackes Alexander Baackes F 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG