🐻⬇️🏀

Keuka

Season:
Also known as: Keuka
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 976 (#291) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 892 (#476) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 900 (#612) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -21.4 (#362) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -19.3 (#598) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.027 (#693) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -6.2 More → 0.294 (#417) NetEff -6.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -48.5 More → 0.003 (#695) AdjNet -48.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -49.6 More → 0.003 (#696) AdjNet -49.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 46.6 | AdjD 76.8 More → 0.060 (#691) AdjO 46.6 | AdjD 76.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 51.5 | AdjD 63.1 More → 0.259 (#630) AdjO 51.5 | AdjD 63.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.156 (#630) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.169 (#629) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 21 More → 859 (#451) RD 100 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.