🐻⬇️🏀

Keuka

Also known as: Keuka
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 973 (#422) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 892 (#507) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1001 (#444) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -16.1 (#328) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -12.3 (#569) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.408 (#523) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -18.9 More → 0.101 (#643) AdjNet -18.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -19.1 More → 0.097 (#643) AdjNet -19.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 80.3 More → 0.219 (#640) AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 80.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 74.0 More → 0.403 (#579) AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 74.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.295 (#578) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.318 (#570) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 103 | GP 22 More → 981 (#408) RD 103 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs SUNY ESF W 93 - 57
2025-11-08 vs Buffalo St. L 73 - 80
2025-11-12 @ Lycoming L 59 - 71
2025-11-15 vs Penn College W 77 - 66
2025-11-18 vs Hobart L 65 - 78
2025-11-22 @ Hilbert L 72 - 74
2025-11-24 @ RIT L 58 - 65
2025-12-02 vs Alfred St. L 75 - 92
2025-12-06 @ SUNY Geneseo L 58 - 64
2025-12-13 vs SUNY Morrisville W 80 - 65
2026-01-09 vs Russell Sage W 105 - 100
2026-01-10 vs Hartwick W 77 - 71
2026-01-13 vs SUNY Brockport W 65 - 62
2026-01-16 @ St. John Fisher L 56 - 60
2026-01-17 @ Nazareth L 54 - 71
2026-01-23 @ Utica L 70 - 77
2026-01-24 @ SUNY Poly L 65 - 77
2026-01-27 vs Elmira W 74 - 68
2026-01-30 vs Houghton L 73 - 76
2026-01-31 vs Alfred W 73 - 62
2026-02-06 @ Hartwick W 87 - 79
2026-02-07 @ Russell Sage W 93 - 80

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lamar Lovelace - 21 31.1 20.3 5.9 2.1 1.2 0.0 2.6 16.8 10.3 -1 -0.0 -0.2 42.3 32.5 87.3 0.01 53.8 48.0
Akinlana Popoola - 18 30.2 15.1 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.1 1.7 12.1 7.4 13 0.7 2.4 41.9 36.8 79.7 0.59 55.5 50.9
Maximus Michalski - 1 30.0 15.0 14.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 14.0 17.0 8 0.4 1.7 42.9 0 100.0 -0.51 49.0 42.9
Andrew Violante - 1 32.0 13.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 6.0 -6 -0.3 -1.3 71.4 66.7 25.0 -1.69 74.2 85.7
Kaleb Nutifafa - 21 24.4 9.2 7.0 1.3 0.6 0.9 2.0 7.5 9.4 -8 -0.4 -1.4 42.7 16.7 64.4 -0.11 49.1 43.0
Makya Morrison - 20 25.5 8.4 7.0 0.9 0.8 1.9 1.9 6.7 10.4 32 1.5 6.7 50.7 20.0 57.4 0.21 53.6 51.5
Carson Kwiatkowski - 1 15.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 -15 -1.1 -16.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 -2.34 121.5 125.0
Giovanni Schillaci - 1 18.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 3.0 -54 -2.7 -20.5 28.6 16.7 50.0 -1.54 38.1 35.7
Quinn VanKerkhove - 20 16.2 5.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 4.7 3.2 10 0.5 2.6 38.3 34.4 80.0 -1.57 53.8 49.5
Alex Hayes - 1 14.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 -60 -2.7 -17.2 50.0 33.3 0 -0.18 62.5 62.5
Jack Janes - 1 13.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 -40 -1.8 -11.9 25.0 50.0 50.0 -2.44 43.4 37.5
Max Schneider - 1 34.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 0.0 2 0.1 0.4 20.0 0.0 0 0.54 20.0 20.0
Lassana Fofana - 2 8.0 4.0 4.0 1.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 7.5 8 8.0 60.4 44.4 0 0.0 0.93 42.4 44.4
Malik Junious-Fuller - 19 21.1 3.9 2.8 1.6 1.3 0.1 1.6 3.5 4.6 -5 -0.2 -1.1 34.3 27.8 78.3 0.21 48.0 41.8
Chase Welch - 17 15.0 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.2 4.2 1.4 -11 -0.6 -6.0 28.2 33.3 63.6 0.99 42.9 40.8
Cam Miller - 13 10.1 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 3.5 3.5 6 0.3 4.4 35.6 31.6 64.7 -0.46 46.7 42.2
Louis Fay - 1 17.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 36 1.8 12.4 0 0 50.0 -0.25 56.8 0
Marcus Reed - 19 9.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.4 2.7 27 1.4 15.4 47.8 25.0 37.5 2.09 49.5 51.1
JT Giannakopoulos - 15 7.6 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2 6 0.4 7.1 63.0 33.3 54.5 2.66 64.4 64.8
Amar Jackson - 9 11.0 2.2 2.8 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.8 -10 -1.1 -16.6 34.8 0.0 57.1 -0.95 38.3 34.8
Jonathan McCaffrey - 1 20.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 -2 -0.1 -0.4 33.3 0 0 0.51 33.3 33.3
Brennan Hopkins - 13 6.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 11 0.8 31.1 35.3 0.0 75.0 0.32 43.9 35.3
Kevin Felasco - 18 9.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 2.3 0.8 3 0.2 1.6 17.1 14.3 80.0 1.72 25.5 22.0
Connor Chapman - 3 6.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 2.0 -0.3 7 2.3 20.2 16.7 25.0 0 1.18 25.0 25.0
Ty LaBarge - 19 9.5 0.8 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 3.3 -16 -0.8 -8.8 46.2 0 36.4 -2.7 44.8 46.2
Alex Girich - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -23 -1.9 -37.3 0 0 0 -1.35 0 0
Kyler Proper - 1 7.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 -21 -1.2 -12.0 0.0 0 0 -2.56 0.0 0.0
Raiden Josil - 2 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 0.7 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG