🐻⬇️🏀

Johnson C. Smith

Also known as: Johnson C. Smith
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 983 (#219) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 850 (#500) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 993 (#324) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -8.8 (#279) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -0.3 (#336) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.403 (#392) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +4.2 More → 0.618 (#245) NetEff +4.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -4.8 More → 0.364 (#480) AdjNet -4.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -5.0 More → 0.358 (#480) AdjNet -5.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 77.1 More → 0.417 (#480) AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 77.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 75.6 More → 0.483 (#338) AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 75.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.441 (#367) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.452 (#352) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 21 More → 946 (#281) RD 97 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Ga. Southern L 79 - 98
2025-11-18 @ Allen L 72 - 77
2025-11-21 vs Virginia-Lynchburg W 119 - 75
2025-11-22 vs Morris W 97 - 80
2025-11-25 @ Lenoir-Rhyne L 72 - 96
2025-11-29 @ Elizabeth City St. W 82 - 72
2025-12-03 @ Lincoln Memorial L 76 - 111
2025-12-19 @ Virginia Union L 36 - 88
2025-12-21 @ Bowie St. L 71 - 73
2026-01-02 @ Emory & Henry L 69 - 87
2026-01-05 @ Lincoln (PA) W 64 - 63
2026-01-08 vs Elizabeth City St. W 71 - 52
2026-01-10 vs Virginia St. L 61 - 83
2026-01-12 vs Bluefield St. L 63 - 71
2026-01-14 vs Virginia Union L 73 - 75
2026-01-17 vs Fayetteville St. L 83 - 95
2026-01-21 vs Shaw W 90 - 77
2026-01-24 @ Livingstone L 0 - 0
2026-01-29 @ Winston-Salem W 76 - 64
2026-02-02 @ Claflin L 72 - 79
2026-02-04 vs Livingstone W 84 - 66
2026-02-07 @ Livingstone W 77 - 69

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Trey Pettigrew - 19 32.7 18.1 3.2 2.9 1.3 0.2 1.9 13.3 10.4 56 3.1 22.5 47.0 39.0 68.8 -0.43 57.0 53.0
Jamauri Bryant - 18 30.0 16.0 6.5 2.7 1.8 0.6 1.9 11.1 14.6 74 4.6 28.3 50.0 36.8 76.3 1.27 59.3 53.5
Jared Davis - 21 26.0 11.8 4.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.9 7.5 9.4 24 1.3 10.2 60.5 41.2 69.9 0.45 65.6 62.7
Anthony Williams - 20 22.0 7.3 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 1.2 6.3 4.3 19 1.1 13.3 41.7 37.7 92.3 1.62 55.4 53.1
Marc Raye - 20 13.5 6.0 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.8 -46 -2.4 -60.1 42.2 48.6 81.2 0.29 57.6 52.2
Javian Cannady - 20 23.7 5.3 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.3 2.0 5.0 6.1 -5 -0.3 -3.8 37.6 38.5 68.4 -1.93 45.4 40.1
Jeremee Bryant - 6 8.9 5.3 1.3 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.7 3.7 3.8 104 5.5 168.5 54.5 60.0 40.0 1.27 66.1 68.2
Jessiah Pierre Johnson - 16 11.3 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.7 32 2.5 50.0 44.6 44.4 0.0 1.6 57.1 58.9
Orlando Hudson - 12 15.7 4.1 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.9 68 6.8 42.6 34.5 44.4 78.1 3.66 56.9 41.4
Bradlee Wolf - 20 14.4 3.9 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 3.6 -53 -3.1 -115.7 50.0 0 64.7 1.07 55.0 50.0
Justin Bumbray - 13 20.6 3.6 2.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 1.2 3.5 3.8 6 0.4 3.6 37.0 25.9 75.0 0.35 47.5 44.6
Travon Gray - 14 15.1 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.8 3.1 -15 -1.1 -12.6 48.0 0.0 55.0 0.64 51.8 48.0
Christopher Mitchell - 7 2.3 1.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 - - - 66.7 100.0 66.7 - 75.1 75.0
Tyson Bates - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Cameron McDonald - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG