Jefferson
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1080 (#68) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 993 (#256) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1062 (#112) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +2.3 (#200) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.4 (#283) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.715 (#202) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.997 (#59) | NetEff +54.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.674 (#315) | AdjNet +6.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.675 (#323) | AdjNet +6.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.603 (#330) | AdjO 79.0 | AdjD 74.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.559 (#200) | AdjO 77.4 | AdjD 74.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.599 (#232) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.602 (#228) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1065 (#163) | RD 93 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | American Int'l | W | 77 - 66 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Mercy | W | 89 - 58 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 86 - 70 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Millersville | L | 74 - 88 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Felician | L | 66 - 81 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Saint Anselm | L | 78 - 91 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Wilmington (DE) | W | 76 - 73 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Bridgeport | L | 67 - 72 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Georgian Court | W | 78 - 57 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Post | W | 87 - 74 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | West Chester | L | 79 - 83 |
| 2025-12-31 | vs | Pace | W | 86 - 82 |
| 2026-01-06 | vs | Holy Family | W | 73 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Caldwell | W | 84 - 82 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Goldey-Beacom | L | 72 - 109 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Dominican (NY) | L | 82 - 84 |
| 2026-01-20 | @ | Chestnut Hill | L | 87 - 95 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Felician | L | 69 - 87 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Wilmington (DE) | W | 83 - 77 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Bridgeport | W | 77 - 60 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | Georgian Court | W | 81 - 58 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Post | W | 83 - 65 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Williams | - | 1 | 24.0 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | 70 | 4.4 | 50.9 | 80.0 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 0.18 | 96.5 | 95.0 |
| Jalen Robinson | - | 1 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 95 | 7.3 | 310.6 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Jeremiah Dorsey | - | 18 | 32.5 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 13.6 | -42 | -2.0 | -10.1 | 48.1 | 34.3 | 78.4 | 1.22 | 61.4 | 56.4 |
| Tre Powell | - | 1 | 24.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 20.0 | 103 | 6.1 | 30.8 | 62.5 | 75.0 | 80.0 | 0.89 | 83.3 | 81.2 |
| Alex Bates IV | - | 20 | 25.9 | 11.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 39 | 1.9 | 11.5 | 44.5 | 40.2 | 70.0 | -0.83 | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Justin Allen | - | 1 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 41 | 3.2 | 60.2 | 83.3 | 100.0 | 0 | 2.15 | 91.7 | 91.7 |
| Anthony Akande | - | 1 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 111 | 7.4 | 108.0 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 0 | 1.29 | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Brendan Mykalcio | - | 16 | 23.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 19 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 50.5 | 33.3 | 66.1 | 2.79 | 58.2 | 54.3 |
| Sean Fullerton | - | 21 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 5.3 | -44 | -1.5 | -10.9 | 46.9 | 31.1 | 86.2 | -1.79 | 56.1 | 52.8 |
| Matt McCool | - | 20 | 24.6 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 11.2 | 44 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 62.8 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 1.86 | 64.9 | 62.8 |
| Farouk Kaba | - | 2 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 18 | 9.0 | 20.1 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0.64 | 47.8 | 33.3 |
| Shane Cercone | - | 20 | 15.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 15 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 51.0 | 33.3 | 85.7 | 0.39 | 59.7 | 53.6 |
| Isaiah Thomas-McClain | - | 21 | 22.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 11 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 42.0 | 42.9 | 42.1 | 2.23 | 57.3 | 58.0 |
| Jahmare Memphis | - | 21 | 18.8 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 26 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 43.4 | 33.3 | 80.8 | -0.67 | 55.8 | 51.9 |
| KJ Smith | - | 2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 36.9 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 0.19 | 90.2 | 100.0 |
| Cosby Napoleon | - | 6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 11 | 1.8 | 21.9 | 38.9 | 50.0 | 75.0 | 1.8 | 48.1 | 44.4 |
| Moustapha Sanoh | - | 18 | 10.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 22 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 53.7 | 0.0 | 44.4 | 2.79 | 53.0 | 53.7 |
| Christopher Cervino | - | 14 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 10 | 0.8 | 17.3 | 50.0 | 46.7 | 0.0 | 1.07 | 67.8 | 69.4 |
| Jaden Colzie | - | 6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 15 | 2.1 | 24.9 | 37.5 | 50.0 | 42.9 | 1.23 | 45.1 | 43.8 |
| Zay Muhammad | - | 3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.35 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Jacob Nguyen | - | 3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 6 | 2.0 | 69.2 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Takata Murphy | - | 4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 11 | 2.2 | 116.8 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.37 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Adrian Vazquez | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Marcel Mamwa | - | 3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 0.8 | 144.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacob Thompson | - | 4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Julian Sadler | - | 2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 2 | 1.0 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG