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Ithaca

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
Also known as: Ithaca
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1036 (#154) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1014 (#314) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 867 (#641) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +3.3 (#158) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -6.7 (#451) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.797 (#314) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +1.1 More → 0.538 (#347) NetEff +1.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +12.5 More → 0.808 (#267) AdjNet +12.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.4 More → 0.812 (#264) AdjNet +12.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 59.3 More → 0.651 (#278) AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 59.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.5 | AdjD 63.3 More → 0.414 (#522) AdjO 59.5 | AdjD 63.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.374 (#479) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.361 (#496) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 22 More → 821 (#476) RD 102 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Colgate L 45 - 66
2025-11-11 @ St. John Fisher W 58 - 52
2025-11-13 @ Cortland L 44 - 73
2025-11-15 @ SUNY New Paltz L 65 - 72
2025-11-21 @ Fredonia W 65 - 59
2025-11-22 @ SUNY Brockport L 75 - 80
2025-12-02 vs Rochester (NY) L 70 - 80
2025-12-09 @ William Smith W 81 - 40
2026-01-10 vs Union (NY) L 51 - 58
2026-01-13 vs William Smith W 66 - 57
2026-01-16 vs Rensselaer L 49 - 60
2026-01-17 vs Bard W 71 - 45
2026-01-23 @ Clarkson L 69 - 79
2026-01-24 @ St. Lawrence L 72 - 80
2026-01-30 @ Union (NY) L 53 - 69
2026-01-31 @ RIT L 55 - 80
2026-02-06 vs St. Lawrence L 55 - 58
2026-02-07 vs Clarkson L 59 - 68

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Presleigh Brunner - 1 37.0 26.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 21.0 8.0 47 2.9 12.5 52.4 28.6 100.0 1.04 59.4 57.1
Tori Drevna - 16 25.9 12.2 5.6 2.8 2.0 0.4 2.8 13.3 6.9 -38 -2.0 -10.2 35.2 35.7 66.7 -1.23 43.8 42.3
GILL, Madison - 1 21.0 11.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 3.0 - - - 45.5 33.3 0 - 50.0 50.0
MCNAMARA, Grace - 1 17.0 11.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 - - - 42.9 0 83.3 - 57.1 42.9
Zoraida Icabalceta - 12 23.8 9.2 3.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 2.1 8.2 7.0 -44 -2.9 -11.7 45.9 26.3 84.6 0.76 53.5 51.0
Madison Gill - 16 22.9 9.1 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.2 9.6 2.5 -22 -1.2 -6.4 37.7 32.4 40.0 0.43 44.8 44.8
Grace McNamara - 16 20.3 7.2 4.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.8 6.4 7.1 15 0.8 5.6 45.6 33.3 79.2 0.42 51.1 47.1
Valerosa Gambitta - 1 37.0 7.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 12.0 61 3.6 16.7 33.3 33.3 0 1.06 38.9 38.9
DREVNA, Tori - 1 28.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 12.0 -4.0 - - - 25.0 20.0 0 - 29.2 29.2
Danielle Seamon - 1 28.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 13 0.8 5.7 42.9 0.0 0 -0.94 42.9 42.9
Hannah Ferguson - 1 33.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 4.0 51 2.8 16.9 28.6 0.0 50.0 0.29 31.7 28.6
Natalie Tucker - 16 19.5 4.9 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.9 5.2 2.5 -58 -3.1 -24.9 38.6 29.0 83.3 -1.07 45.5 44.0
Avery McPeek - 15 19.1 4.3 3.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.7 -51 -2.8 -18.0 45.1 0.0 75.0 -1.79 52.0 45.1
Mary Bernat - 15 14.5 4.1 3.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 2.0 3.9 5.5 -16 -0.9 -10.6 44.8 0 58.8 -3.15 47.3 44.8
Julia Perales - 1 25.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 52 3.7 18.0 25.0 25.0 50.0 1.9 41.0 37.5
BARROWS, Madalyn - 1 30.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 100.0 - 34.0 20.0
Kenzie Perluke - 14 14.2 3.9 2.9 0.9 1.6 0.2 0.5 3.8 5.3 -31 -1.7 -20.4 39.6 18.8 55.6 -3.63 45.1 42.5
Simone Pintinalli - 14 8.6 3.7 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.9 0.5 1 0.1 2.1 36.4 35.3 0 -0.29 47.3 47.3
Madalyn Barrows - 16 18.1 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.7 4.7 1.4 -83 -4.4 -42.9 26.7 15.4 60.0 -1.86 32.7 30.7
PERLUKE, Kenzie - 1 12.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 50.0 - 38.7 33.3
BERNAT, Mary - 1 18.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 - - - 25.0 0 50.0 - 30.7 25.0
Lily Wohlleber - 11 7.5 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.0 15 1.2 31.4 63.2 0 16.7 0.81 57.8 63.2
Natalie Mai - 1 18.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 3.0 -3.0 8 0.5 6.6 33.3 0.0 0.0 -0.63 25.8 33.3
Payton O'Dell - 1 12.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 26 2.4 28.4 33.3 0 0 0.86 33.3 33.3
TUCKER, Natalie - 1 25.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 -1.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
MCPEEK, Avery - 1 16.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
Aila Dervisevic - 13 14.2 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 3.5 0.5 23 1.4 18.4 20.0 10.7 33.3 0.87 24.1 23.3
Sonya Benhassen - 3 4.2 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.3 2.3 0.7 - - - 28.6 100.0 0 - 35.7 35.7
Emma Phelan - 4 5.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.2 -19 -3.8 -592.2 22.2 0.0 0 0.41 22.2 22.2
PINTINALLI, Simone - 1 9.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 50.0 - 17.4 0.0
Olivia Stevens - 6 5.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 20 3.3 623.4 33.3 0.0 33.3 0.41 34.2 33.3
Megan Cassidy - 4 4.3 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.5 -19 -4.8 -592.2 33.3 0 33.3 0.41 34.7 33.3
Kate Mocho - 3 6.2 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -0.3 - - - 16.7 0.0 0 - 16.7 16.7
Lili Shanahan - 6 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.2 -18 -3.6 -561.0 20.0 0.0 0 0.41 20.0 20.0
Alexa Gibson - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35 2.2 78.8 0 0 0 -1.77 0 0
Leah Khuu - 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 15 1.9 155.2 0 0 0 0.88 0 0
Breanna Heidt - 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13 0.8 8.7 0 0 0 1.24 0 0
STEVENS, Olivia - 1 8.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
WOHLLEBER, Lily - 1 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
DERVISEVIC, Aila - 1 10.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG