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Illinois State Redbirds

Also known as: Illinois State Redbirds
Program History

2026 Team Stats (36 games)

71.2
PPG
67.1
Opp
+4.1
Margin
44.0%
FG%
31.9%
3P%
73.2%
FT%
36.2
RPG
15.8
APG
14.1
TO
80.5
Pace

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +113 elo More → 1142 (#28) HCA +113 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +14.1 (#147) HCA +2.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.4 | AdjD 60.3 More → 0.592 (#133) AdjO 64.4 | AdjD 60.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.807 (#135) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.783 (#129) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 86 | GP 36 More → 1135 (#112) RD 86 | GP 36

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-09 @ Illinois Fighting Illini L 65 - 75
2025-11-12 vs Chicago State Cougars W 101 - 52
2025-11-21 vs Saint Louis Billikens W 81 - 75
2025-11-26 @ Rice Owls L 72 - 75
2025-11-27 vs East Carolina Pirates L 66 - 73
2025-11-28 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons L 44 - 57
2025-12-03 @ Northern Iowa Panthers L 54 - 68
2025-12-07 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers W 64 - 46
2025-12-14 @ Nebraska Cornhuskers L 44 - 85
2025-12-19 vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies W 89 - 66
2025-12-29 vs Indiana State Sycamores W 105 - 64
2026-01-02 @ Murray State Racers L 93 - 101
2026-01-04 @ Belmont Bruins L 68 - 75
2026-01-08 vs UIC Flames W 75 - 61
2026-01-11 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 82 - 71
2026-01-15 vs Valparaiso Beacons W 93 - 74
2026-01-22 @ UIC Flames L 64 - 76
2026-01-25 @ Indiana State Sycamores W 85 - 69
2026-01-29 vs Northern Iowa Panthers W 59 - 55
2026-02-01 vs Bradley Braves W 58 - 54
2026-02-07 vs Drake Bulldogs W 77 - 70
2026-02-13 @ Southern Illinois Salukis L 60 - 84
2026-02-15 @ Evansville Purple Aces W 88 - 75
2026-02-20 vs Belmont Bruins W 83 - 78
2026-02-22 vs Murray State Racers L 62 - 73
2026-02-26 vs Southern Illinois Salukis W 78 - 60
2026-02-28 @ Valparaiso Beacons W 83 - 42
2026-03-05 @ Drake Bulldogs L 55 - 73
2026-03-08 @ Bradley Braves W 66 - 65
2026-03-13 vs Drake Bulldogs W 69 - 62
2026-03-14 vs Evansville Purple Aces L 70 - 75
2026-03-22 vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros W 81 - 52
2026-03-27 vs Abilene Christian Wildcats W 59 - 55
2026-03-30 vs George Washington Revolutionaries W 61 - 53
2026-04-01 @ South Dakota Coyotes W 67 - 60
2026-04-04 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 41 - 66

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
N. Thomas N. Thomas F 2 20.0 17.5 6.0 4.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 9.5 17.5 33 8.2 16.7 73.7 25.0 100.0 1.92 80.9 76.3
D. Washington D. Washington F 36 31.0 16.7 8.4 1.3 1.9 1.8 2.1 12.9 15.0 83 3.8 4.1 49.4 29.0 71.1 2.72 56.6 53.2
A. Martin A. Martin F 36 35.3 12.2 5.8 2.8 0.5 0.4 1.9 9.8 10.0 80 3.6 3.7 48.3 0.0 71.7 0.21 53.2 48.3
T. Fayta T. Fayta G 36 34.4 11.6 4.2 5.6 1.5 0.2 3.4 8.5 11.1 83 3.8 3.8 42.3 31.9 73.0 1.85 54.4 47.2
K. Hurt K. Hurt G 36 21.6 7.7 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.0 1.6 7.1 4.1 29 1.4 2.0 42.4 36.1 74.1 -0.11 49.9 46.7
B. Finnegan B. Finnegan G 36 18.6 6.0 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.9 5.7 2.3 45 2.0 3.1 38.5 35.8 64.3 0.27 50.9 50.2
G. Nelson G. Nelson G 36 18.3 5.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 4.6 3.5 70 3.2 8.5 37.6 37.4 90.5 1.4 55.9 50.6
J. Pratt J. Pratt G 35 23.9 5.1 4.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 1.4 3.9 5.9 97 4.6 6.3 42.2 29.5 70.6 2.89 54.6 48.9
M. Austin M. Austin F 35 9.1 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.3 44 2.2 8.3 49.4 33.3 74.4 1.14 60.5 54.9
Z. Adams Z. Adams G 16 5.8 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.1 -22 -1.8 -11.2 38.7 0.0 72.7 -2.27 44.6 38.7
J. Fenske J. Fenske G 19 6.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 -6 -0.4 -2.6 19.0 11.8 58.3 -0.48 32.3 23.8
D. Thomas D. Thomas G 29 6.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.8 83 3.6 5.8 21.2 25.0 83.3 2.99 29.5 24.2
T. Veach T. Veach G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
M. Bruno M. Bruno G 10 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -15 -2.1 -37.9 0.0 0.0 0 -1.49 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG