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Illinois Col.

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Illinois Col.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1010 (#370) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 982 (#404) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1003 (#430) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -1.1 (#133) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -7.2 (#486) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.777 (#302) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.8 More → 0.609 (#311) AdjNet +3.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.6 More → 0.604 (#311) AdjNet +3.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 69.5 More → 0.542 (#325) AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 69.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 68.1 More → 0.490 (#427) AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 68.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.428 (#456) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.437 (#452) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 21 More → 991 (#372) RD 101 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Principia W 88 - 36
2025-11-08 vs Simpson W 83 - 71
2025-11-14 @ Ill. Wesleyan L 67 - 71
2025-11-15 vs Maryville (TN) L 65 - 69
2025-11-18 @ Millikin L 66 - 75
2025-11-22 vs Elmhurst L 72 - 73
2025-11-25 vs Knox W 86 - 71
2025-12-03 @ Monmouth (IL) L 72 - 74
2025-12-06 vs Grinnell L 68 - 92
2025-12-17 @ DePauw L 78 - 95
2025-12-20 vs Blackburn W 81 - 74
2025-12-30 vs Webster L 64 - 70
2026-01-03 vs Beloit W 79 - 53
2026-01-07 @ Lake Forest L 71 - 76
2026-01-10 vs Ripon W 66 - 63
2026-01-17 @ Beloit W 61 - 51
2026-01-21 @ Cornell College W 77 - 61
2026-01-24 vs Lawrence W 69 - 66
2026-01-27 @ Knox W 61 - 58
2026-01-31 @ Ripon L 62 - 67
2026-02-07 vs Lake Forest L 79 - 87

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ty Lenhardt - 21 35.1 18.7 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 2.0 15.2 7.1 -16 -0.8 -3.4 38.2 33.5 79.3 0.89 52.8 46.6
DeShawn Nolan - 21 29.7 10.5 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.0 1.7 9.8 5.4 13 0.7 3.1 39.8 31.5 66.7 -0.1 49.2 46.8
Seth Doss - 21 24.6 10.1 6.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.6 8.2 9.3 57 3.0 15.6 52.6 0.0 54.5 0.37 53.8 52.6
Andrew Thomas - 21 28.7 8.4 5.2 1.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 6.5 9.0 29 1.6 7.0 41.9 35.4 68.7 -1.55 53.5 48.2
Isayah Kloster - 21 16.8 6.2 3.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.4 4.7 5.4 -21 -1.1 -10.1 62.2 0.0 42.9 0.62 61.1 62.2
Connor Brown - 13 16.6 5.8 2.9 1.2 1.2 0.2 1.1 5.8 4.5 5 0.5 6.5 38.7 9.1 70.8 2.45 44.4 39.3
Jayden McCoo - 20 16.0 4.5 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.8 3.9 2.5 -45 -2.5 -17.3 38.5 32.5 69.6 -2.09 50.5 46.8
Austin Robinson - 16 12.0 3.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.0 5.4 14 1.0 46.7 62.5 50.0 62.5 0.09 65.8 64.1
Brady Clark - 17 16.0 2.8 3.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.0 49 2.9 19.8 55.6 0.0 50.0 3.0 55.7 55.6
Jaylen Swinney - 14 9.7 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.8 3.4 1.5 -17 -1.5 -39.8 29.8 15.4 38.5 1.33 35.1 34.0
Nick Doroskin - 16 7.0 2.2 2.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.2 2.9 -5 -0.4 -8.3 45.7 0.0 37.5 1.73 45.4 45.7
Marcus Coleman - 2 6.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 9 9.0 40.2 50.0 100.0 50.0 0.13 69.4 75.0
Dylan Murphy - 4 9.2 1.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.5 -4 -0.8 -53.9 22.2 28.6 0.0 0.46 30.4 33.3
Chandler Mueller - 5 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 -0.2 2 0.4 9.1 25.0 25.0 0 0.64 37.5 37.5
Henry Thomas - 18 4.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.8 16 0.9 28.2 22.2 42.9 87.5 0.09 41.8 30.6
Carson Doran - 3 2.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 3 1.0 25.9 100.0 100.0 0 0.22 150.0 150.0
Blake Shoufler - 2 2.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 1 0.5 8.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.22 53.2 0.0
Nathan Bobikiewicz - 3 3.8 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 -0.7 1 0.3 5.8 20.0 0.0 0 0.63 20.0 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG