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Howard

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 575 (#339) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 708 (#334) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 869 (#326) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More โ†’ -12.5 (#323) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -12.9 (#330) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.133 (#328) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.1 More โ†’ 0.072 (#332) AdjNet -22.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.3 More โ†’ 0.070 (#332) AdjNet -22.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 49.8 | AdjD 61.6 More โ†’ 0.255 (#324) AdjO 49.8 | AdjD 61.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 52.4 | AdjD 60.7 More โ†’ 0.318 (#324) AdjO 52.4 | AdjD 60.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.157 (#336) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.165 (#336) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 145 | GP 29 More โ†’ 659 (#341) RD 145 | GP 29

2013 Schedule & Results

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mike Phillips Mike Phillips F 31 34.8 12.0 6.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 2.3 2.1 17.0 -151 15 -10.1 -13.2 46.2 50.0 66.7 0.51 249.9 46.9
Calvin Thompson Calvin Thompson G 16 26.4 11.3 3.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 2.1 1.6 13.8 -72 8 -9.0 -15.2 34.6 40.0 85.7 -1.9 311.2 42.3
Shane Frazier Shane Frazier G 28 31.0 8.0 2.8 3.8 1.6 0.1 3.7 1.6 10.9 -164 15 -10.9 -14.8 34.8 35.3 50.0 -1.63 218.4 41.3
Prince Okoroh Prince Okoroh G 31 29.3 6.9 4.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.9 1.2 11.3 -173 15 -11.5 -17.7 22.2 0.0 40.0 -2.39 264.9 22.2
Anton Dickerson Anton Dickerson G 30 16.6 6.4 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 1.5 6.2 -47 15 -3.1 -9.7 36.4 33.3 100.0 -1.06 215.0 45.5
Alphonso Leary Alphonso Leary F-C 31 27.3 5.2 5.9 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.0 10.9 -190 15 -12.7 -20.9 48.4 0 52.6 -6.01 203.3 48.4
Tre Lee Tre Lee G 30 24.2 5.0 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.7 1.1 7.2 -101 14 -7.2 -16.3 18.8 11.1 100.0 -1.28 222.2 21.9
Oliver Ellison Oliver Ellison C 1 22.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Brandon Ford Brandon Ford G 27 13.9 2.9 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.6 3.9 -54 14 -3.9 -13.7 23.5 0.0 50.0 -1.6 207.9 23.5
Theodore Boyomo Theodore Boyomo C 29 13.0 1.3 2.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2 4.0 -70 14 -5.0 -14.6 16.7 0 25.0 -0.58 238.4 16.7
Anthony Smith Anthony Smith - 8 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Emmanuel Okoro Emmanuel Okoro C 18 3.7 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 -14 9 -1.6 -19.7 0.0 0.0 0 -2.16 50.0 0.0
Faret Estriplet Faret Estriplet - 3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG