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Howard Payne

Season:
Also known as: Howard Payne
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1048 (#136) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 954 (#391) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1046 (#193) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1003 (#416) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -0.2 (#194) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +1.5 (#346) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -6.3 (#445) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.081 (#644) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -0.6 More → 0.477 (#364) NetEff -0.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -16.3 More → 0.133 (#530) AdjNet -16.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -16.7 More → 0.121 (#530) AdjNet -16.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.4 | AdjD 67.2 More → 0.273 (#527) AdjO 56.4 | AdjD 67.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 57.6 More → 0.527 (#341) AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 57.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 60.2 More → 0.518 (#359) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 60.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.483 (#393) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.453 (#421) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.507 (#374) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.422 (#441) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 105 | GP 24 More → 1051 (#255) RD 105 | GP 24
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 1000 (#303) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.