🐻⬇️🏀

Hillsdale

Also known as: Hillsdale
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 973 (#260) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1027 (#221) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 991 (#335) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +8.5 (#118) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +7.8 (#193) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.692 (#222) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +9.4 More → 0.738 (#227) NetEff +9.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +18.7 More → 0.897 (#143) AdjNet +18.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +18.9 More → 0.901 (#138) AdjNet +18.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 64.7 More → 0.777 (#142) AdjO 78.4 | AdjD 64.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 67.6 More → 0.612 (#132) AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 67.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.652 (#189) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.637 (#196) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 1028 (#202) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Saginaw Valley L 77 - 79
2025-11-16 vs Saginaw Valley L 73 - 80
2025-11-19 vs Andrews W 89 - 42
2025-11-22 vs Ohio Christian W 74 - 72
2025-11-26 @ UIndy L 59 - 71
2025-12-04 @ Malone L 57 - 63
2025-12-06 vs Lake Erie W 96 - 86
2025-12-11 @ Northwood L 73 - 87
2025-12-16 @ Quincy L 61 - 63
2025-12-17 @ Truman St. W 88 - 84
2025-12-21 vs McKendree L 66 - 79
2026-01-03 vs Malone W 70 - 51
2026-01-05 vs Walsh L 64 - 76
2026-01-08 @ Ky. Wesleyan L 81 - 88
2026-01-10 @ Thomas More W 54 - 51
2026-01-15 vs Cedarville W 84 - 71
2026-01-17 @ Tiffin L 56 - 60
2026-01-22 @ Findlay W 78 - 72
2026-01-24 vs Ashland L 72 - 82
2026-01-31 @ Walsh L 51 - 71
2026-02-05 vs Tiffin W 67 - 59
2026-02-07 vs Ohio Dominican L 71 - 76

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ashton Janowski - 21 32.5 11.8 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 1.6 11.2 3.5 -58 -2.8 -11.0 43.4 35.0 64.7 -1.0 49.4 47.9
Caleb Glaser - 19 20.7 11.4 5.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.5 7.5 10.0 -78 -3.9 -27.1 59.2 0.0 63.6 -0.94 61.7 59.2
Connor Stonebraker - 22 17.0 9.4 3.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 6.8 7.0 -20 -0.9 -5.9 48.3 31.0 73.1 -0.1 57.7 52.7
Braylon Morris - 22 21.8 8.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.6 6.7 4.5 -25 -1.1 -7.1 44.2 41.8 73.5 -1.64 59.6 57.1
Garrett Bolte - 22 25.2 7.7 4.2 1.4 0.5 0.3 1.0 5.7 7.4 -81 -3.7 -22.3 49.2 32.3 81.8 -2.82 58.5 53.2
Cole McWhinnie - 22 28.5 7.6 3.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 1.3 6.3 7.5 -38 -1.7 -7.5 38.4 34.9 93.9 1.17 54.7 49.3
Tommy Morgan - 22 23.2 7.5 2.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.2 6.1 5.5 -48 -2.2 -14.1 46.7 28.6 67.7 2.95 55.5 53.3
CJ Yarian - 22 20.3 5.5 5.8 2.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 4.6 8.4 15 0.7 4.8 45.1 28.1 55.9 1.13 51.3 49.5
Matt Buckman - 2 10.2 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 0.5 - - - 28.6 0.0 100.0 - 38.1 28.6
Paxton Giertz - 22 11.8 2.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.1 -8 -0.4 -4.7 40.8 30.0 55.6 0.6 48.1 46.9
Jacob Meyer - 7 7.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.7 -27 -3.9 -42.5 30.0 0 100.0 1.19 36.8 30.0
John Morris - 3 2.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 -0.3 2 0.7 55.2 25.0 33.3 0 0.35 37.5 37.5
Michael App - 5 2.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 3 0.6 26.5 0.0 0 0 0.26 0.0 0.0
Israel Gentry - 3 3.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 -0.7 3 1.0 82.8 0.0 0.0 0 0.35 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG