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Gwynedd Mercy

Season:
Also known as: Gwynedd Mercy
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1028 (#178) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 817 (#527) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 994 (#478) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 817 (#673) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -18.9 (#349) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -20.5 (#610) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -23.2 (#636) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.150 (#609) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -13.7 More → 0.119 (#480) NetEff -13.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -24.7 More → 0.054 (#595) AdjNet -24.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -25.2 More → 0.048 (#596) AdjNet -25.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 72.1 More → 0.189 (#595) AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 72.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 59.8 More → 0.528 (#338) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 59.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 67.4 More → 0.198 (#666) AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 67.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.315 (#516) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.136 (#639) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.299 (#534) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.141 (#644) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 294 | GP 1 More → 949 (#369) RD 294 | GP 1
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 22 More → 761 (#500) RD 101 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.