Gwynedd Mercy
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1164 (#75) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1058 (#157) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1074 (#127) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.4 (#214) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.1 (#460) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.706 (#89) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.272 (#206) | AdjNet -8.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.298 (#185) | AdjNet -7.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.372 (#191) | AdjO 73.9 | AdjD 79.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.506 (#395) | AdjO 75.4 | AdjD 75.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.460 (#434) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.477 (#429) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1091 (#194) | RD 98 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Rosemont | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-10 | vs | St. Joseph's (Brkln) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Arcadia | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Penn St.-Mont Alto | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Eastern | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Valley Forge | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | UMES | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Alvernia | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-08 | vs | Penn St.-Abington | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Brooklyn | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-28 | @ | McDaniel | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | DeSales | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Pratt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Immaculata | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Marywood | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Neumann | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Centenary (NJ) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Saint Elizabeth | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Marymount (VA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Pratt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Marywood | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Immaculata | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-11 | @ | Marymount (VA) | W | 61 - 57 |
| 2026-02-14 | @ | Neumann | W | 75 - 74 |
| 2026-02-18 | vs | Centenary (NJ) | L | 70 - 76 |
| 2026-02-21 | vs | Saint Elizabeth | W | 84 - 58 |
| 2026-02-26 | vs | Centenary (NJ) | W | 96 - 77 |
| 2026-02-28 | vs | Neumann | L | 65 - 66 |
2026 Roster
No roster data available for this season.