Grinnell
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1078 (#95) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1001 (#325) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1036 (#230) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.8 (#202) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.1 (#364) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.738 (#341) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.385 (#387) | NetEff -3.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.507 (#379) | AdjNet +0.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.499 (#379) | AdjNet -0.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.486 (#379) | AdjO 62.7 | AdjD 63.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.582 (#256) | AdjO 58.3 | AdjD 54.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.480 (#395) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.505 (#376) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1029 (#276) | RD 107 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Central (IA) | L | 56 - 60 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Rockford | W | 76 - 52 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Coe | L | 54 - 75 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Buena Vista | L | 52 - 67 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | North Central (MN) | W | 63 - 58 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Beloit | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Saint Mary's (MN) | L | 49 - 77 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Wis.-Platteville | L | 42 - 66 |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | Cornell College | W | 62 - 50 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Ripon | L | 56 - 81 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Neb. Wesleyan | W | 58 - 40 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Lawrence | W | 57 - 42 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Monmouth (IL) | W | 82 - 57 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Ripon | L | 40 - 67 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Knox | L | 42 - 52 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Lake Forest | W | 88 - 39 |
| 2026-01-27 | @ | Beloit | W | 62 - 46 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lawrence | L | 42 - 66 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Monmouth (IL) | W | 71 - 42 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bria Medina | - | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 70 | 3.3 | 11.9 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 0.4 | 47.6 | 42.9 |
| Nora Lynch | - | 18 | 23.6 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | - | - | - | 45.1 | 46.3 | 89.5 | - | 62.1 | 56.2 |
| Kylee Callahan | - | 1 | 30.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 163 | 7.4 | 25.2 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 2.78 | 28.8 | 23.1 |
| Skylar Thomas | - | 18 | 25.8 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 7.7 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 31.7 | 19.0 | 71.4 | - | 41.6 | 34.5 |
| Ava Wu | - | 18 | 20.2 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | - | - | - | 38.7 | 32.5 | 85.7 | - | 51.1 | 48.8 |
| Kelsey Ericksen | - | 18 | 18.4 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | - | - | - | 36.5 | 34.2 | 68.2 | - | 52.5 | 50.0 |
| Georgia Patterson | - | 18 | 15.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | - | - | - | 40.7 | 36.1 | 75.0 | - | 52.3 | 48.3 |
| Juniper Schwartzman | - | 18 | 21.4 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 8.3 | - | - | - | 45.6 | 0 | 70.0 | - | 50.4 | 45.6 |
| Cassidy Pak | - | 13 | 13.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | - | - | - | 25.8 | 16.7 | 67.4 | - | 38.9 | 28.0 |
| Carolyn Pierce | - | 18 | 17.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 34.1 | 32.8 | 52.9 | - | 46.2 | 45.1 |
| Bailey Strovers | - | 8 | 15.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 | - | - | - | 29.3 | 19.2 | 61.1 | - | 40.9 | 35.4 |
| Xiyah Yarbrough | - | 1 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 86 | 4.1 | 21.1 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.11 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Carly Smith | - | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 53 | 2.5 | 13.6 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Amelia Rigel | - | 16 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | - | - | - | 32.2 | 31.0 | 40.9 | - | 40.8 | 39.8 |
| Megan Walters | - | 17 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | - | - | - | 41.3 | 0.0 | 65.0 | - | 46.5 | 41.3 |
| Izzy Robinson | - | 1 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 128 | 6.1 | 23.2 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.79 | 16.9 | 12.5 |
| Caroline Phillips | - | 8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 50.0 | 37.5 | 50.0 | 1.1 | 62.1 | 62.5 |
| Nayeli Nidez Acuña | - | 1 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Sarah Finley | - | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15 | 1.9 | 7.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.45 | 53.2 | 100.0 |
| Nayeli Nidez Acuña | - | 1 | 36.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 162 | 7.7 | 37.8 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 4.34 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Eleanor Cordes | - | 9 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 27.3 | 0.0 | 83.3 | - | 40.3 | 27.3 |
| Reese Stephens | - | 18 | 13.0 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | - | - | - | 21.1 | 12.5 | 33.3 | - | 25.4 | 23.7 |
| Elly Marriott | - | 9 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 50.0 | 25.0 | - | 42.0 | 50.0 |
| Emily Roesler | - | 9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Bri Holland | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -14 | -1.2 | -28.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucy Lawrence | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -21 | -2.3 | -122.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.85 | 0 | 0 |
| Emma Sineath | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -20 | -2.5 | -126.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.09 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG