🐻⬇️🏀

Gettysburg

Also known as: Gettysburg
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1168 (#14) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1196 (#52) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1186 (#32) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +16.1 (#54) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +16.0 (#150) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.951 (#200) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +13.1 More → 0.866 (#188) NetEff +13.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +36.2 More → 0.985 (#127) AdjNet +36.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +35.8 More → 0.986 (#129) AdjNet +35.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 51.7 More → 0.859 (#145) AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 51.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.4 | AdjD 52.8 More → 0.804 (#56) AdjO 68.4 | AdjD 52.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.867 (#92) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.865 (#86) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 1288 (#30) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ DeSales W 63 - 60
2025-11-09 @ Susquehanna L 56 - 74
2025-11-12 @ Penn St.-Altoona W 72 - 45
2025-11-18 vs Penn St. Harrisburg W 76 - 43
2025-11-21 @ Shenandoah L 52 - 63
2025-11-22 @ Randolph-Macon L 53 - 63
2025-12-03 @ Messiah L 77 - 83
2025-12-16 @ Stevenson W 82 - 66
2025-12-28 @ Amherst W 73 - 59
2025-12-29 vs Occidental W 68 - 53
2026-01-10 @ Johns Hopkins L 46 - 67
2026-01-14 @ Franklin & Marshall W 69 - 58
2026-01-17 vs Ursinus W 73 - 44
2026-01-21 vs Dickinson W 64 - 45
2026-01-24 @ Swarthmore W 61 - 49
2026-01-28 @ McDaniel W 65 - 60
2026-02-04 vs Johns Hopkins L 63 - 66
2026-02-07 @ Muhlenberg W 56 - 49

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kimberly Hopkins - 18 22.7 9.9 4.3 1.6 0.6 0.6 2.3 8.9 5.6 36 1.9 11.5 43.5 29.4 75.6 1.52 49.5 45.0
Olivia Jones - 18 19.3 9.2 3.1 0.9 1.7 0.1 1.7 9.3 3.9 87 3.6 504.3 35.1 27.7 83.3 -2.05 44.5 39.0
Reagan Chrencik - 18 21.5 7.2 5.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.4 6.2 7.7 29 1.5 11.1 48.2 0.0 70.0 -0.2 51.5 48.2
Amanda Rapel - 18 19.5 6.5 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 6.3 3.6 6 0.3 2.1 35.4 26.4 71.9 2.43 46.0 41.6
Adeline Standish - 18 17.4 6.3 5.4 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.8 4.6 8.8 64 3.4 23.2 60.2 0 82.4 3.26 63.0 60.2
Sasha Brody - 18 13.6 6.1 2.7 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.6 5.6 2.8 103 5.4 64.5 37.6 25.8 83.3 2.09 47.7 41.6
Skylar Reale - 18 26.4 5.3 7.1 1.6 1.6 0.4 1.9 3.7 10.3 106 5.6 28.0 47.0 0.0 65.4 3.93 54.0 47.0
Briana Robles - 18 15.8 4.7 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.0 4.1 2.9 129 6.8 77.9 33.8 32.4 65.7 1.43 47.5 41.9
Jameson Mott - 8 14.4 4.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 5.4 1.1 20 2.9 26.1 23.3 26.9 80.0 -0.95 36.9 31.4
Ava O'Neil - 17 22.4 4.1 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.2 1.6 5.5 0.9 -22 -1.2 -7.2 26.6 25.0 100.0 -3.36 36.1 33.5
Sarah Bertolette - 16 12.8 3.8 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 3.2 4.3 48 3.0 52.5 52.9 0 70.0 -0.57 55.1 52.9
Lizzie Calandruccio - 2 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 -0.5 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Caitlyn Nagle - 4 5.1 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.5 - - - 16.7 25.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Sireen Maharmeh - 4 5.7 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.2 - - - 33.3 0 0.0 - 25.8 33.3
Amelia Moore - 3 6.3 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 203 9.7 119.9 0.0 0 50.0 2.25 17.4 0.0
Caitlin Whyte - 2 5.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG