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Georgia State

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Georgia State Panthers
Program History
Coach: Marcilina Grayer

2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)

65.7
PPG
70.7
Opp
-5.0
Margin
42.5%
FG%
22.7%
3P%
66.7%
FT%
27.7
RPG
14.0
APG
14.3
TO
71.3
Est. poss./game
61.0
Adj PPG
65.0
Adj Opp PPG
#277
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 775 (returning production + recruiting): last season 918, returning -81, transfers -61, freshmen +0 More → 702 (#337) Preseason prior 775 (returning production + recruiting): last season 918, returning -81, transfers -61, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +190 elo More → 820 (#319) HCA +190 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +189 elo More → 888 (#334) HCA +189 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.8 More → -14.1 (#303) HCA +3.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.8 More → -13.8 (#304) HCA +3.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.196 (#249) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -9.9 More → 0.258 (#299) AdjNet -9.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -9.8 More → 0.255 (#299) AdjNet -9.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 65.0 More → 0.328 (#277) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 65.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.9 | AdjD 65.0 More → 0.362 (#277) AdjO 60.9 | AdjD 65.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.249 (#294) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.255 (#296) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 179 | GP 3 More → 788 (#328) RD 179 | GP 3
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.148 (#312) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 @ Buffalo Bulls L 81 - 82
2026-11-06 @ UNC Asheville Bulldogs L 56 - 66
2026-11-08 vs Wofford Terriers L 60 - 64
2026-11-11 vs Toccoa Falls Eagles - Preview
2026-11-15 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Grace Lanier Grace Lanier G 3 36.3 17.7 3.0 2.7 4.3 0.0 3.0 12.3 12.3 -8 3 -2.7 -3.0 51.4 33.3 85.7 0.18 61.4 55.4
Aaliyah Baldwin Aaliyah Baldwin G 3 31.0 9.7 2.3 2.7 1.7 0.3 1.7 9.3 5.7 -7 3 -2.3 -3.0 35.7 28.6 75.0 0.14 48.7 46.4
Aryelle Stevens Aryelle Stevens F 3 22.0 8.7 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.3 6.7 4.3 2 3 0.7 1.2 55.0 100.0 50.0 0.02 57.4 57.5
Mariah Knight Mariah Knight F 3 13.7 7.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 6.7 5.0 -9 3 -3.0 -8.8 40.0 40.0 62.5 -1.66 48.9 45.0
Danaeja Romero Ah Sam Danaeja Romero Ah Sam G 3 22.7 7.3 3.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.0 8.0 2.7 -5 3 -1.7 -3.0 37.5 8.3 50.0 0.55 41.3 39.6
Kenaya Klintman Kenaya Klintman G 3 32.3 6.7 4.0 2.0 3.0 0.3 2.3 6.3 7.3 -15 3 -5.0 -6.2 42.1 25.0 66.7 -2.77 49.2 47.4
Ana Oliveira Dias Ana Oliveira Dias G 3 28.3 6.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 4.0 6.3 8.3 -8 3 -2.7 -3.8 47.4 0.0 50.0 -0.51 48.2 47.4
Aikaterini Yfantopoulou Aikaterini Yfantopoulou G 2 6.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 -2 2 -1.0 -6.0 50.0 0 0 -0.33 50.0 50.0
Jada Collins Jada Collins F 3 3.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.0 -8 3 -2.7 -26.3 25.0 0 0 -1.24 25.0 25.0
Makennah Alexis Makennah Alexis G 3 5.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 -0.7 -15 3 -5.0 -35.6 0.0 0.0 0 -2.15 0.0 0.0
Dawson Jemerson Dawson Jemerson G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Frankee Payne Frankee Payne G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Nikole Thomas Nikole Thomas G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

179 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Dias25% Lanier30% Sam33% Stevens50% Baldwin25% Lanier100% Baldwin71% Knight33% Sam100%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Stevens29% Knight19% Dias33% Klintman100% Lanier43% Baldwin100% Sam100% Baldwin30% Sam43% Baldwin32%
Misses: who misses most here

Grace LanierAaliyah BaldwinAryelle StevensDanaeja Romero Ah SamAna Oliveira DiasKenaya KlintmanMariah Knight

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 32-39 82.1 64 Ana Oliveira Dias 25% (16 pts) Grace Lanier 25% (16 pts) Aryelle Stevens 29% (2 misses) Grace Lanier 29% (2 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 20-51 39.2 40 Grace Lanier 30% (12 pts) Danaeja Romero Ah Sam 25% (10 pts) Mariah Knight 19% (6 misses) Aryelle Stevens 16% (5 misses)
Mid-range left 3-9 33.3 6 Danaeja Romero Ah Sam 33% (2 pts) Grace Lanier 33% (2 pts) Ana Oliveira Dias 33% (2 misses) Grace Lanier 33% (2 misses)
Mid-range center 2-3 66.7 4 Aryelle Stevens 50% (2 pts) Mariah Knight 50% (2 pts) Kenaya Klintman 100% (1 misses) -
Mid-range right 4-11 36.4 8 Aaliyah Baldwin 25% (2 pts) Grace Lanier 25% (2 pts) Grace Lanier 43% (3 misses) Mariah Knight 29% (2 misses)
Left corner 3 1-2 50.0 3 Grace Lanier 100% (3 pts) - Aaliyah Baldwin 100% (1 misses) -
Right corner 3 0-1 0.0 0 - - Danaeja Romero Ah Sam 100% (1 misses) -
Above-break 3 left 7-27 25.9 21 Aaliyah Baldwin 71% (15 pts) Grace Lanier 14% (3 pts) Aaliyah Baldwin 30% (6 misses) Makennah Alexis 20% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center 6-13 46.2 18 Mariah Knight 33% (6 pts) Aaliyah Baldwin 17% (3 pts) Danaeja Romero Ah Sam 43% (3 misses) Ana Oliveira Dias 29% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right 1-23 4.3 3 Danaeja Romero Ah Sam 100% (3 pts) - Aaliyah Baldwin 32% (7 misses) Danaeja Romero Ah Sam 23% (5 misses)