Fredonia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1031 (#169) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1086 (#174) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 948 (#565) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.7 (#223) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.7 (#453) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.449 (#475) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.870 (#186) | NetEff +12.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.206 (#488) | AdjNet -11.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.191 (#490) | AdjNet -12.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.331 (#486) | AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 66.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.460 (#449) | AdjO 60.0 | AdjD 61.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.394 (#459) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.402 (#451) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 975 (#352) | RD 114 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Thiel | W | 71 - 44 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Hilbert | W | 88 - 48 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Keuka | W | 74 - 52 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Ithaca | L | 59 - 65 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | William Smith | W | 62 - 55 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Houghton | L | 74 - 80 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Alfred | W | 70 - 59 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | SUNY Morrisville | W | 68 - 62 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | SUNY New Paltz | L | 51 - 65 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | SUNY Oneonta | W | 57 - 49 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Cortland | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | SUNY Canton | L | 54 - 62 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Oswego St. | W | 70 - 67 |
| 2026-01-27 | vs | SUNY Morrisville | W | 69 - 63 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Buffalo St. | L | 64 - 69 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | SUNY Oneonta | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | SUNY New Paltz | L | 53 - 57 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Gilbert | - | 16 | 26.2 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 94 | 4.9 | 18.4 | 54.1 | 0.0 | 53.6 | 0.67 | 55.2 | 54.1 |
| Jayssa Snelick | - | 16 | 31.5 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 89 | 4.7 | 15.2 | 37.0 | 27.5 | 57.1 | 1.3 | 45.7 | 44.4 |
| Grace Alexander | - | 16 | 34.1 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 134 | 7.1 | 23.2 | 35.3 | 30.2 | 55.6 | 2.84 | 45.2 | 44.0 |
| Jakeira Stackhouse | - | 16 | 29.3 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 60 | 3.3 | 13.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 71.7 | -1.61 | 46.9 | 42.5 |
| Alexys Neckers | - | 6 | 26.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 55 | 7.9 | 82.2 | 43.5 | 17.6 | 66.7 | 2.19 | 49.7 | 46.7 |
| Aliyah Hopkins | - | 14 | 17.1 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 37 | 2.2 | 14.7 | 36.9 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 3.38 | 42.8 | 38.3 |
| Ashley Kalvitis | - | 16 | 21.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 90 | 4.7 | 22.2 | 31.7 | 9.1 | 50.0 | 0.72 | 34.3 | 33.3 |
| Shaliyah Helmick | - | 6 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 28 | 3.5 | 36.4 | 38.9 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 0.59 | 43.0 | 41.7 |
| Kaylyn Sweeney | - | 9 | 18.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | -16 | -1.5 | -7.8 | 22.2 | 25.0 | 75.0 | -3.85 | 31.8 | 29.2 |
| Annika Andersen | - | 12 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 71 | 4.7 | 59.3 | 43.3 | 37.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 53.3 | 53.3 |
| Ava Brazier | - | 6 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -21 | -2.1 | -36.5 | 22.2 | 0 | 57.1 | -0.78 | 33.1 | 22.2 |
| Caitlin Wagner | - | 6 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 20 | 2.5 | 190.5 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | -0.47 | 29.8 | 30.0 |
| Meghan Kruszka | - | 14 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 10 | 0.7 | 22.6 | 27.3 | 14.3 | 75.0 | -1.03 | 39.2 | 31.8 |
| Kailee Bladin | - | 8 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -9 | -0.8 | -34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.23 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Natalee Leiper | - | 3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -8 | -1.1 | -168.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.49 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG