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Fredonia

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Fredonia
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 772 (#627) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 651 (#647) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 734 (#775) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -27.8 (#405) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -24.9 (#725) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.180 (#684) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -26.0 More → 0.047 (#706) AdjNet -26.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -26.3 More → 0.045 (#704) AdjNet -26.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 84.8 More → 0.153 (#696) AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 84.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.9 | AdjD 79.3 More → 0.198 (#741) AdjO 63.9 | AdjD 79.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.081 (#761) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.091 (#760) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 115 | GP 20 More → 578 (#639) RD 115 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Penn St.-Behrend L 67 - 94
2025-11-12 vs Hilbert L 64 - 71
2025-11-18 vs Elmira L 97 - 101
2025-11-21 vs Hamilton L 56 - 92
2025-11-22 @ Merchant Marine L 63 - 77
2025-12-05 @ Plattsburgh St. L 78 - 94
2025-12-06 @ SUNY Potsdam W 77 - 73
2025-12-12 @ Houghton L 61 - 92
2026-01-03 vs Hartwick L 75 - 94
2026-01-06 @ Cortland L 51 - 70
2026-01-08 vs Buffalo St. L 52 - 70
2026-01-13 @ SUNY Morrisville L 86 - 93
2026-01-16 vs SUNY New Paltz L 67 - 78
2026-01-17 vs SUNY Oneonta L 68 - 69
2026-01-20 vs Cortland L 0 - 0
2026-01-23 vs SUNY Canton W 85 - 83
2026-01-24 vs Oswego St. L 66 - 77
2026-01-27 vs SUNY Morrisville L 75 - 83
2026-01-30 @ Buffalo St. L 50 - 51
2026-02-06 @ SUNY Oneonta L 41 - 69
2026-02-07 @ SUNY New Paltz L 69 - 94

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Reem Welch - 1 25.7 25.0 10.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 15.0 19.0 -60 -3.0 -7.6 73.3 0.0 75.0 1.32 74.6 73.3
Jaiden Gladney - 1 31.3 17.0 1.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 14.0 -89 -4.7 -13.0 54.5 33.3 66.7 -0.78 62.3 59.1
Martin Garza - 19 33.9 14.8 5.4 1.5 1.4 0.4 2.0 13.0 8.4 -85 -4.2 -17.3 38.1 28.2 65.4 1.12 49.9 46.6
Irwayne Connell Jr. - 1 22.4 14.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 8.0 13.0 -35 -2.2 -13.7 50.0 100.0 100.0 -1.14 71.7 62.5
Elijah Morris - 1 26.9 12.0 7.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 18.0 6 0.7 4.5 44.4 33.3 100.0 1.53 60.7 55.6
Stevie Williams - 19 28.7 11.6 2.5 2.9 0.8 0.1 2.1 9.3 6.6 -155 -8.2 -33.1 46.0 29.4 57.6 1.29 51.8 48.9
Victor Robinson - 5 20.2 10.2 7.8 1.2 1.4 0.6 2.2 9.4 9.6 -29 -4.8 -37.8 40.4 0.0 68.4 -0.44 46.1 40.4
Brian Kopp - 14 25.9 9.1 2.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 2.6 6.7 5.4 -28 -1.9 -16.8 46.8 46.6 85.7 1.46 63.4 61.2
David McKnight Jr. - 1 25.9 8.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 5.0 -43 -2.3 -11.8 30.0 20.0 50.0 -0.72 36.8 35.0
Ethan Sokolowski - 15 27.0 7.6 5.3 3.0 1.3 0.1 1.7 8.3 7.3 -33 -2.4 -7.2 37.1 16.7 61.8 1.54 41.0 37.5
Chris Williams - 18 19.4 6.7 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 4.9 5.4 -78 -4.1 -23.1 50.0 34.8 58.1 -2.19 56.6 54.5
Dexter Brooks - 11 18.2 5.9 3.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.3 4.4 5.3 -26 -2.4 -12.8 47.9 0.0 65.5 1.03 53.5 47.9
Antonio Andrews - 14 13.3 4.6 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 3.6 3.9 -100 -6.7 -174.8 46.0 0 60.0 -1.39 50.6 46.0
Jason Douglas - 18 12.3 4.6 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.2 5.1 2.3 -93 -5.2 -48.4 34.1 19.2 62.5 -4.03 40.4 36.8
Jose Rosario - 11 9.9 3.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 3.5 1.5 -30 -7.5 -109.3 36.8 31.8 80.0 -1.2 48.5 46.1
Kofo Laditan - 19 14.5 2.1 3.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 1.5 2.7 3.5 -34 -1.8 -13.6 35.3 0 50.0 -0.86 36.4 35.3
Jesse Gustar-Lowcock - 2 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 - - - 66.7 0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Matty Stolfo - 1 5.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -11 -1.2 -14.7 100.0 0 0 0.22 100.0 100.0
Mark MacDonald - 19 14.3 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.6 1.4 -103 -5.4 -45.7 30.6 25.0 60.0 -2.43 35.2 33.7
Antowan Holmes - 16 7.8 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 -79 -4.9 -88.9 38.9 0 30.0 -2.72 37.9 38.9
Colin Hartig - 1 9.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -3 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 0 0 0.81 0.0 0.0
Ole Angenstein - 1 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG