Flagler
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 979 (#322) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 961 (#330) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 929 (#585) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -3.2 (#207) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -3.5 (#419) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.509 (#360) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.610 (#243) | NetEff +3.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.572 (#370) | AdjNet +2.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.581 (#374) | AdjNet +2.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.539 (#370) | AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 67.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.452 (#465) | AdjO 60.2 | AdjD 62.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.432 (#420) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.431 (#414) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 915 (#358) | RD 92 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Anderson (SC) | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Shorter | L | 88 - 93 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Saint Leo | W | 86 - 78 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Embry-Riddle (FL) | L | 70 - 74 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Southern Wesleyan | W | 87 - 59 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Florida Tech | L | 75 - 86 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Augusta | L | 56 - 63 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Columbus St. | L | 52 - 74 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | USC Aiken | W | 62 - 49 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Middle Georgia | L | 55 - 56 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | UNC Pembroke | W | 70 - 67 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | North Georgia | L | 51 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Trinity (FL) | W | 87 - 30 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Lander | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Georgia College | W | 55 - 54 |
| 2026-01-20 | @ | Clayton St. | L | 49 - 57 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Augusta | L | 52 - 68 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Ga. Southwestern | W | 75 - 57 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Columbus St. | L | 57 - 82 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Middle Georgia | L | 46 - 60 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | USC Aiken | L | 55 - 62 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marley Smith | - | 21 | 24.9 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | -11 | -0.7 | -8.4 | 39.3 | 35.8 | 76.4 | 1.11 | 51.1 | 44.7 |
| Natalie Herrin | - | 20 | 27.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.1 | 39.6 | 84.3 | 1.23 | 56.5 | 50.3 |
| Aspen Weeks | - | 21 | 28.7 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 4.7 | -49 | -3.1 | -25.8 | 42.8 | 33.3 | 79.1 | -0.09 | 51.9 | 46.7 |
| Gabby Bush | - | 21 | 21.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 4.7 | -54 | -3.4 | -31.9 | 34.2 | 15.4 | 64.5 | -1.55 | 42.0 | 35.4 |
| Emerson Kutz | - | 21 | 21.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | -110 | -6.9 | -57.7 | 38.0 | 23.3 | 73.1 | -0.81 | 47.2 | 44.2 |
| Abby Smith | - | 20 | 20.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | -68 | -4.5 | -66.9 | 40.4 | 30.8 | 93.8 | -0.46 | 51.8 | 48.1 |
| Dennaye Hinds | - | 13 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | -57 | -4.4 | -35.9 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 1.65 | 41.4 | 38.5 |
| Carleigh Grimm | - | 21 | 14.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | -81 | -5.1 | -84.1 | 44.6 | 33.3 | 63.6 | -0.38 | 51.6 | 49.5 |
| Jessica Dowdy | - | 21 | 21.8 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | -72 | -4.8 | -51.7 | 40.0 | 26.2 | 62.2 | 0.93 | 50.9 | 46.9 |
| Bre Jones | - | 9 | 15.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 28 | 1.3 | 9.4 | 41.0 | 38.9 | 100.0 | -1.03 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Mckenna Morrison | - | 10 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -38 | -4.2 | -166.7 | 41.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.93 | 43.6 | 41.7 |
| Jazmine Major | - | 5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -19 | -3.8 | -25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.12 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG