Ferrum
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 949 (#399) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 955 (#556) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.5 (#249) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.0 (#259) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.392 (#497) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.284 (#456) | AdjNet -8.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.270 (#457) | AdjNet -8.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.369 (#463) | AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 58.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.517 (#361) | AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 58.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.535 (#356) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.519 (#363) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | @ | JWU Charlotte | L | 53 - 56 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allyson Cassell | - | 1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 30.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | - | 36.8 | 35.0 |
| Zy'Breayziah Alexander | - | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 87 | 4.6 | 23.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.43 | 50.9 | 50.0 |
| Sofia Ponce | - | 1 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 59.5 | 60.0 |
| Erin Harden | - | 1 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Maslyn Mosbacher | - | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Kleiauna Riddick | - | 1 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Taryn Blankenship | - | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 32.7 | 20.0 |
| Aleksandra Kubiak | - | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -5.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Breyana Kimmons | - | 1 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 11.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 20.2 | 11.1 |
| Dezariyah Clark | - | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 | 14 | 1.6 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gracie Beane | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG