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Ferrum

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Ferrum
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 919 (#435) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 866 (#456) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 845 (#657) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -7.5 (#289) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -5.1 (#441) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.367 (#418) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -5.5 More → 0.311 (#333) NetEff -5.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -9.2 More → 0.256 (#486) AdjNet -9.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -9.3 More → 0.252 (#493) AdjNet -9.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 61.3 More → 0.381 (#481) AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 61.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.3 | AdjD 60.5 More → 0.384 (#544) AdjO 55.3 | AdjD 60.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.278 (#538) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.289 (#541) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 24 More → 839 (#431) RD 93 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ USC Beaufort - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Ga. Southwestern - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 @ Virginia Union - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Chowan - Incomplete score
2025-12-01 vs Concord - Incomplete score
2025-12-03 @ Bluefield St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 @ Mount Olive - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 vs Erskine - Incomplete score
2025-12-16 @ UNC Pembroke - Incomplete score
2025-12-20 @ N.C. A&T - Incomplete score
2025-12-31 vs Bluefield St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-03 vs Converse - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Emmanuel (GA) - Incomplete score
2026-01-13 @ Belmont Abbey - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Southern Wesleyan - Incomplete score
2026-01-19 @ Francis Marion - Incomplete score
2026-01-23 @ Chowan - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs Lees-McRae - Incomplete score
2026-01-30 @ Barton - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ King (TN) - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Shorter - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Breyana Kimmons - 20 26.8 10.8 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.4 10.3 4.1 -75 -3.6 -22.7 36.7 36.1 72.7 -2.18 48.5 46.1
Taryn Blankenship - 13 24.0 7.3 4.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 2.3 6.9 5.0 -27 -2.1 -12.9 38.9 0 75.8 -0.54 45.4 38.9
Sofia Ponce - 20 17.2 7.0 4.7 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.5 4.7 6.2 2 0.1 0.8 53.8 36.4 63.2 1.82 59.3 55.9
Maslyn Mosbacher - 20 24.9 7.0 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.2 1.8 5.4 5.5 -45 -2.1 -19.7 39.8 35.0 78.0 -0.14 53.5 46.3
Kleiauna Riddick - 20 23.7 6.2 3.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 1.6 6.7 4.2 -68 -3.2 -36.2 33.1 21.5 78.6 -0.31 42.7 38.3
Aleksandra Kubiak - 20 16.0 5.8 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.6 4.8 2.9 -68 -3.2 -26.0 40.6 34.0 72.4 -3.35 52.9 49.0
Dezariyah Clark - 20 14.4 5.8 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.0 2.5 6.0 0.9 -12 -0.6 -5.2 40.8 18.8 44.1 2.19 43.0 42.1
Allyson Cassell - 20 18.1 4.5 5.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.1 4.0 5.8 -73 -3.5 -51.2 41.8 19.0 65.6 -1.05 48.9 44.3
Zy'Breayziah Alexander - 20 14.0 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.3 2.9 4.2 -3 -0.1 -1.6 55.2 0 33.3 0.8 53.1 55.2
Erin Harden - 20 18.0 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 1.7 3.0 3.2 -30 -1.4 -17.1 39.3 21.2 77.8 2.18 50.1 45.1
Gracie Beane - 15 9.1 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 2.3 1.3 -14 -0.9 -14.4 31.4 29.6 25.0 0.3 42.2 42.9
Tabitha Miller - 3 3.9 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 -9 -3.0 -24.8 100.0 0 100.0 0.27 106.4 100.0
Farren Crist - 2 2.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Kamryn Snyder - 4 4.7 1.0 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 1.2 -6 -1.5 -50.7 11.1 0.0 40.0 0.22 17.9 11.1
Jordan Fisher - 10 5.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 -21 -2.3 -65.1 18.2 0.0 33.3 -2.52 22.0 18.2
Anna Newman - 1 3.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -2 -2.0 -24.5 0 0 0 - 0 0
Brynn Ferguson - 7 6.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.1 -1.0 -11 -1.6 -11.8 0.0 0.0 0 -0.98 0.0 0.0
Gracious Wise - 1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG