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Ferrum

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Ferrum
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 911 (#442) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 867 (#465) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 845 (#657) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -7.0 (#233) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -5.1 (#441) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.367 (#418) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -5.5 More → 0.311 (#333) NetEff -5.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -9.2 More → 0.256 (#486) AdjNet -9.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -9.3 More → 0.252 (#493) AdjNet -9.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 61.3 More → 0.381 (#481) AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 61.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.3 | AdjD 60.5 More → 0.384 (#544) AdjO 55.3 | AdjD 60.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.279 (#539) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.289 (#540) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 24 More → 838 (#431) RD 93 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ USC Beaufort L 66 - 75
2025-11-15 vs Ga. Southwestern W 60 - 57
2025-11-19 @ Virginia Union L 55 - 63
2025-11-25 vs Chowan L 63 - 68
2025-12-01 vs Concord W 75 - 59
2025-12-03 @ Bluefield St. L 51 - 70
2025-12-06 @ Mount Olive W 59 - 58
2025-12-13 vs Erskine W 83 - 61
2025-12-16 @ UNC Pembroke L 58 - 63
2025-12-20 @ N.C. A&T L 39 - 84
2025-12-31 vs Bluefield St. L 69 - 80
2026-01-03 vs Converse W 77 - 59
2026-01-10 @ Emmanuel (GA) W 76 - 67
2026-01-13 @ Belmont Abbey L 38 - 67
2026-01-17 vs Southern Wesleyan L 56 - 58
2026-01-19 @ Francis Marion L 61 - 67
2026-01-23 @ Chowan L 44 - 48
2026-01-28 vs Lees-McRae L 63 - 68
2026-01-30 @ Barton L 48 - 65
2026-02-04 @ King (TN) L 56 - 74
2026-02-07 vs Shorter W 63 - 61

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Breyana Kimmons - 21 26.3 10.7 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.3 10.3 4.1 -75 -3.6 -22.7 36.6 36.0 74.3 0.82 48.4 45.8
Taryn Blankenship - 14 23.3 7.1 3.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 2.2 6.7 4.9 -27 -2.1 -12.9 39.4 0 74.3 -3.01 45.7 39.4
Maslyn Mosbacher - 21 24.7 7.0 2.6 1.7 1.2 0.2 1.8 5.4 5.5 -45 -2.1 -19.7 39.8 33.3 77.8 -0.29 53.4 46.0
Sofia Ponce - 21 17.0 6.8 4.6 0.4 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.5 6.0 2 0.1 0.8 54.3 36.4 63.8 0.7 59.8 56.4
Kleiauna Riddick - 21 23.4 6.1 3.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.5 6.7 4.0 -68 -3.2 -36.2 32.9 21.2 78.6 -2.59 42.0 37.9
Dezariyah Clark - 21 14.3 5.6 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.0 2.5 5.9 0.9 -12 -0.6 -5.2 40.3 18.8 44.1 0.28 42.5 41.5
Aleksandra Kubiak - 21 15.8 5.5 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 1.5 4.8 2.5 -68 -3.2 -26.0 39.0 32.7 72.4 -3.89 51.0 47.0
Allyson Cassell - 21 18.0 4.3 4.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.1 3.8 5.5 -73 -3.5 -51.2 41.2 19.0 65.6 -1.69 48.4 43.8
Zy'Breayziah Alexander - 21 13.9 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 2.8 4.0 -3 -0.1 -1.6 55.9 0 30.0 0.52 53.1 55.9
Erin Harden - 21 17.8 3.3 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.7 3.0 3.0 -30 -1.4 -17.1 37.5 20.0 77.8 0.24 48.0 43.0
Gracie Beane - 16 9.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 2.3 1.2 -14 -0.9 -14.4 32.4 29.6 25.0 1.21 42.6 43.2
Tabitha Miller - 4 4.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.8 -9 -3.0 -24.8 100.0 0 100.0 -0.06 106.4 100.0
Kamryn Snyder - 5 5.8 0.8 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.8 -6 -1.5 -50.7 9.1 0.0 40.0 0.45 15.2 9.1
Farren Crist - 3 4.4 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Jordan Fisher - 11 5.4 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 -21 -2.3 -65.1 18.8 0.0 33.3 -1.41 21.5 18.8
Brynn Ferguson - 8 7.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.4 -0.5 -11 -1.6 -11.8 9.1 9.1 0 1.1 13.6 13.6
Gracious Wise - 2 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 2.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Anna Newman - 1 3.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -2 -2.0 -24.5 0 0 0 -0.18 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG