🐻⬇️🏀

FDU

Also known as: FDU
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1055 (#171) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1094 (#165) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1010 (#362) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +20.9 (#54) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +23.2 (#99) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.998 (#106) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +29.6 More → 0.969 (#115) AdjNet +29.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +29.0 More → 0.970 (#119) AdjNet +29.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 91.4 | AdjD 67.5 More → 0.898 (#99) AdjO 91.4 | AdjD 67.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.6 | AdjD 67.1 More → 0.758 (#56) AdjO 79.6 | AdjD 67.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.860 (#47) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.842 (#48) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 1058 (#274) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-18 vs Saint Elizabeth - Incomplete score
2025-12-19 vs Lehman - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.