🐻⬇️🏀

Eureka

Also known as: Eureka
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 815 (#465) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 564 (#604) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 649 (#730) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -38.1 (#410) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -41.6 (#701) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.084 (#641) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +75.8 More → 1.000 (#24) NetEff +75.8
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -39.1 More → 0.004 (#570) NetEff -39.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -37.4 More → 0.013 (#657) AdjNet -37.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -36.5 More → 0.013 (#653) AdjNet -36.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.0 | AdjD 76.1 More → 0.100 (#659) AdjO 52.0 | AdjD 76.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 46.1 | AdjD 79.1 More → 0.047 (#722) AdjO 46.1 | AdjD 79.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.016 (#720) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.017 (#721) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 107 | GP 23 More → 452 (#581) RD 107 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Wis.-Oshkosh L 33 - 83
2025-11-15 vs Wis.-Stevens Point L 50 - 88
2025-11-18 @ Illinois Tech L 58 - 71
2025-11-21 @ Hanover L 40 - 85
2025-11-22 vs Wilmington (OH) L 46 - 75
2025-11-25 vs Blackburn L 77 - 91
2025-12-16 @ McKendree L 37 - 97
2025-12-29 vs Monmouth (IL) L 67 - 96
2025-12-30 vs Millikin L 25 - 85
2026-01-10 vs Lyon L 57 - 89
2026-01-12 @ Illinois Col. L 58 - 96
2026-01-14 @ Webster L 46 - 93
2026-01-17 @ Spalding L 46 - 65
2026-01-20 @ Principia L 52 - 91
2026-01-22 vs Spalding L 35 - 65
2026-01-26 vs Greenville L 54 - 70
2026-01-31 @ Westminster (MO) L 41 - 61
2026-02-05 @ Lyon L 60 - 87
2026-02-07 @ MUW L 62 - 91

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kayla Collins - 12 32.6 12.2 3.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 5.9 15.9 -3.7 -289 -19.3 -71.7 28.3 19.8 76.7 -4.43 36.0 32.5
Courtney Hart - 15 25.9 11.0 11.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.8 8.7 13.8 -246 -13.7 -417.8 54.6 0 56.1 -0.07 55.7 54.6
Lailah Hadley - 10 37.5 9.9 4.5 5.0 2.1 0.3 5.9 14.2 1.7 -242 -13.4 -59.4 28.2 15.6 46.2 -2.67 32.3 30.6
Sierra Garcia-Reisch - 9 29.8 9.2 4.9 1.3 2.7 0.4 2.8 11.4 4.3 - - - 29.1 20.6 62.5 - 37.7 35.4
Allysa Taylor - 9 35.6 8.9 3.6 3.3 1.9 0.2 4.8 10.9 2.2 - - - 27.6 22.2 66.7 - 37.3 33.7
Miracle Armstrong - 14 32.8 8.8 3.6 1.8 1.8 0.1 4.5 11.8 -0.1 -245 -16.3 -72.7 27.9 14.0 46.2 0.76 32.7 30.0
Railynn Brown - 19 31.0 6.9 3.6 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 9.1 1.4 -341 -15.5 -109.6 28.5 25.4 100.0 0.02 38.0 37.2
Abigail Martinez - 13 23.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 1.7 0.3 2.9 8.4 -3.0 -192 -12.8 -62.0 17.4 7.3 53.8 -3.22 20.9 18.8
Brooklyn Bowman - 18 24.6 2.7 3.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.4 -314 -15.0 -113.6 40.0 0.0 54.2 -2.48 44.1 40.0
Kenna Newton - 13 15.4 1.2 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.3 2.7 -0.3 -137 -9.1 -68.3 11.4 9.5 35.7 -1.62 18.2 14.3
Miyala Gallegos - 1 10.4 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 - - - 0.0 0 50.0 - 26.6 0.0
Daniesha Oliver - 6 9.0 0.3 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.2 - - - 16.7 0.0 0 - 16.7 16.7

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG