🐻⬇️🏀

Emerson

Also known as: Emerson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1018 (#205) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1110 (#123) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 979 (#515) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +0.1 (#189) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -3.1 (#410) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.646 (#381) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +5.0 More → 0.661 (#296) NetEff +5.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.0 More → 0.529 (#375) AdjNet +1.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.5 More → 0.513 (#375) AdjNet +0.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 65.8 More → 0.508 (#367) AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 65.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 63.3 More → 0.504 (#383) AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 63.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.496 (#387) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.493 (#394) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 1021 (#285) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Baruch W 73 - 36
2025-11-10 vs Endicott W 78 - 71
2025-11-15 @ Albertus Magnus W 60 - 51
2025-11-16 @ Wesleyan (CT) L 54 - 63
2025-11-22 @ UMass Dartmouth L 69 - 77
2025-11-23 @ U New England W 72 - 61
2025-11-25 vs Western New Eng. W 67 - 58
2025-12-09 @ Suffolk W 66 - 48
2026-01-12 @ Worcester St. W 58 - 56
2026-01-17 vs Salve Regina W 73 - 62
2026-01-21 @ Wellesley W 54 - 42
2026-01-24 @ Wheaton (MA) W 76 - 67
2026-01-28 vs MIT L 58 - 69
2026-01-31 @ WPI L 41 - 55
2026-02-04 vs Babson L 60 - 72
2026-02-07 @ Coast Guard L 74 - 83

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Bri Frongillo - 9 38.7 19.2 4.1 5.0 1.3 0.2 4.0 16.8 9.1 -11 -0.8 -2.9 41.7 37.5 85.3 -1.89 52.1 47.7
Jessie Silk - 12 33.5 17.2 10.8 2.7 1.3 0.0 2.8 13.4 15.8 28 1.8 8.0 38.5 38.7 73.8 0.05 52.8 46.0
Tune, Tatiana - 1 29.0 14.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 9.0 - - - 40.0 0 100.0 - 55.4 40.0
Claire English - 15 24.8 9.1 8.0 1.7 1.5 1.1 2.7 6.7 12.1 44 2.3 11.5 61.0 0.0 65.2 2.49 62.2 61.0
Moreau, Jordan - 1 32.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 13.0 2.0 - - - 7.7 16.7 100.0 - 28.8 11.5
Lindsay Gould - 15 26.1 8.5 2.9 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.5 8.1 2.9 0 0.0 0.0 36.1 30.5 68.8 -3.34 49.6 48.0
Ingram, Ariana - 1 27.0 8.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 - - - 50.0 66.7 0 - 66.7 66.7
Kaylin O'Meara - 12 27.1 6.8 5.3 2.6 1.2 1.0 3.3 6.2 7.3 39 2.4 17.9 37.3 13.3 59.0 3.02 43.9 38.7
Kendra Dodd - 15 28.1 6.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.1 6.3 2.9 45 2.4 10.1 34.0 35.8 100.0 0.13 50.6 49.5
Bono, Allison - 1 31.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 6.0 - - - 42.9 0 0 - 42.9 42.9
Brown, Akiyah - 1 6.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 -1.0 - - - 40.0 0 0 - 40.0 40.0
Sofia Canter - 14 18.9 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 1.6 3.4 2.8 5 0.3 1.7 37.5 39.3 87.5 1.78 52.4 49.0
Annie Ferguson - 9 12.2 3.7 3.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.2 5.0 1.7 -2 -0.2 -1.1 31.1 33.3 75.0 1.49 35.3 33.3
Elise Arnold - 14 16.7 3.5 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.6 1.2 -7 -0.4 -2.5 32.8 19.0 50.0 0.66 36.8 35.9
Skene, Khaya - 1 6.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Verdile, Olivia - 1 21.0 2.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 4.0 - - - 14.3 0.0 0.0 - 12.7 14.3
Thurman, Ava - 1 25.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 -2.0 - - - 14.3 0.0 0 - 14.3 14.3
Lisee McGovern - 6 5.6 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.2 -10 -1.4 -14.0 50.0 0 50.0 0.11 52.1 50.0
Sydney Lyons - 11 7.4 0.4 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 -9 -0.7 -8.1 14.3 0 100.0 -1.7 25.4 14.3
Lena Hicks - 4 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8 1.6 136.2 0 0 50.0 0.68 56.8 0
More, Delaney - 1 9.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 -2 -0.7 -77.4 0.0 0 0 -0.35 0.0 0.0
Corazzini, Mia - 1 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Berkowitz, Claire - 1 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Nixon, Ella - 1 5.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Catherine McDonough - 3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1.0 51.1 0 0 0 0.68 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG