Emerson
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 992 (#394) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1013 (#369) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 894 (#683) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.7 (#155) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.1 (#483) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.229 (#645) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.217 (#524) | AdjNet -11.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.238 (#493) | AdjNet -10.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.372 (#459) | AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 76.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.431 (#541) | AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.337 (#547) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.341 (#555) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 949 (#438) | RD 98 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Salem St. | L | 80 - 84 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | WestConn | W | 71 - 67 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Connecticut Col. | L | 72 - 82 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Tufts | L | 50 - 84 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Suffolk | W | 66 - 59 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | UMass Lowell | L | 67 - 90 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Coast Guard | W | 96 - 71 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Wheaton (MA) | W | 79 - 76 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Bridgewater St. | W | 104 - 80 |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Cal Lutheran | W | 66 - 62 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Chapman | L | 63 - 88 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Bowdoin | L | 60 - 63 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Salve Regina | L | 89 - 92 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | MIT | W | 78 - 63 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Clark (MA) | L | 63 - 82 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Babson | L | 52 - 61 |
| 2026-01-20 | @ | WPI | L | 55 - 84 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Springfield | L | 73 - 89 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Coast Guard | L | 77 - 85 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Salve Regina | L | 74 - 77 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Wheaton (MA) | W | 84 - 55 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | MIT | L | 77 - 86 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Heberle | - | 1 | 24.4 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 88 | 4.2 | 24.6 | 70.0 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 2.03 | 92.8 | 90.0 |
| Jacob Armant | - | 18 | 30.4 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | -98 | -5.2 | -25.9 | 41.0 | 38.2 | 73.6 | 0.77 | 52.5 | 49.0 |
| Linus Helmhold | - | 19 | 24.4 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 12.4 | -23 | -1.3 | -7.5 | 51.8 | 36.0 | 75.0 | -1.1 | 63.8 | 55.0 |
| Thomas Ferdinando | - | 1 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 82 | 5.1 | 21.4 | 44.4 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.99 | 55.7 | 50.0 |
| Timmy Mulvey | - | 1 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 91 | 5.7 | 20.8 | 28.6 | 42.9 | 0 | 1.68 | 39.3 | 39.3 |
| Timmy O'Toole | - | 1 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 107 | 6.7 | 37.1 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 4.85 | 48.6 | 50.0 |
| Tyler Lauder | - | 1 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 84 | 5.2 | 25.8 | 71.4 | 0 | 0 | 4.48 | 71.4 | 71.4 |
| Cruz Billings | - | 1 | 24.3 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 67 | 3.0 | 23.1 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 2.45 | 66.6 | 50.0 |
| Logan Murphy | - | 1 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 95 | 5.9 | 33.7 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -1.19 | 54.1 | 42.9 |
| Guillermo Gasset Ruiz | - | 20 | 27.0 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 9.4 | -123 | -6.5 | -37.0 | 52.2 | 50.0 | 66.7 | -1.15 | 65.3 | 64.3 |
| Shay Roban | - | 20 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | -43 | -2.4 | -24.5 | 43.1 | 44.7 | 75.0 | -0.07 | 59.3 | 58.5 |
| Brendan Taylor | - | 13 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 2.6 | -39 | -3.0 | -25.1 | 43.1 | 42.5 | 76.5 | -0.34 | 61.1 | 57.8 |
| Giulio Volonte | - | 19 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 46.6 | 25.0 | 93.3 | -0.45 | 52.9 | 49.5 |
| Jacob Simon | - | 1 | 17.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Scott Schulz | - | 1 | 17.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 134 | 6.1 | 52.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 1.16 | 61.5 | 62.5 |
| Tyler Dutto | - | 1 | 16.9 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Brendan McNamara | - | 18 | 22.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -79 | -4.4 | -30.2 | 39.5 | 36.4 | 64.3 | -3.98 | 51.1 | 49.4 |
| Alex Kim | - | 1 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -33 | -2.5 | -37.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.82 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Asher Gardiner | - | 20 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | -86 | -4.5 | -63.7 | 50.8 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -2.22 | 51.6 | 50.8 |
| Jackson Bernardo | - | 1 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 12 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.56 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Jared Wilkins | - | 19 | 11.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | -9 | -0.5 | -3.6 | 50.0 | 13.3 | 62.5 | -2.28 | 53.5 | 52.2 |
| Roman Leraris | - | 15 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | -19 | -1.4 | -56.2 | 40.6 | 30.0 | 65.0 | -0.23 | 51.5 | 45.3 |
| Hank Gramlich | - | 20 | 13.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | -6 | -0.4 | -4.3 | 44.2 | 38.1 | 61.5 | -0.21 | 55.4 | 53.5 |
| Caden Zurek | - | 20 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | -77 | -4.3 | -79.5 | 39.1 | 33.3 | 60.0 | -0.83 | 43.7 | 40.2 |
| Joe Keegan | - | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 35 | 1.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.36 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Theo Lamb | - | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 0.5 | 10.5 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Ray Allen III | - | 11 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -25 | -2.1 | -45.5 | 47.1 | 40.0 | 25.0 | -0.82 | 56.0 | 58.8 |
| Kieran Durkin | - | 8 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | - | - | - | 38.5 | 0.0 | 36.4 | - | 39.2 | 38.5 |
| Jeff Tan | - | 8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 0.6 | 90.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.15 | 54.3 | 50.0 |
| Blake Bailey | - | 9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.2 | 78.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.34 | 66.4 | 100.0 |
| Yoav Rabbi | - | 7 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 7 | 1.8 | 210.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Vaughn Foster | - | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 0.5 | 24.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.29 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG