🐻⬇️🏀

Emerson

Also known as: Emerson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 992 (#394) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1013 (#369) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 894 (#683) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -2.7 (#155) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -7.1 (#483) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.229 (#645) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -11.2 More → 0.217 (#524) AdjNet -11.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -10.0 More → 0.238 (#493) AdjNet -10.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 76.7 More → 0.372 (#459) AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 76.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 75.9 More → 0.431 (#541) AdjO 72.9 | AdjD 75.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.337 (#547) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.341 (#555) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 21 More → 949 (#438) RD 98 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-11 vs Salem St. L 80 - 84
2025-11-14 vs WestConn W 71 - 67
2025-11-16 vs Connecticut Col. L 72 - 82
2025-11-20 @ Tufts L 50 - 84
2025-11-25 @ Suffolk W 66 - 59
2025-11-29 @ UMass Lowell L 67 - 90
2025-12-03 @ Coast Guard W 96 - 71
2025-12-06 vs Wheaton (MA) W 79 - 76
2025-12-10 @ Bridgewater St. W 104 - 80
2025-12-19 @ Cal Lutheran W 66 - 62
2025-12-20 @ Chapman L 63 - 88
2026-01-03 vs Bowdoin L 60 - 63
2026-01-07 vs Salve Regina L 89 - 92
2026-01-13 @ MIT W 78 - 63
2026-01-15 vs Clark (MA) L 63 - 82
2026-01-17 @ Babson L 52 - 61
2026-01-20 @ WPI L 55 - 84
2026-01-22 vs Springfield L 73 - 89
2026-01-24 vs Coast Guard L 77 - 85
2026-01-28 @ Salve Regina L 74 - 77
2026-01-31 @ Wheaton (MA) W 84 - 55
2026-02-07 vs MIT L 77 - 86

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jake Heberle - 1 24.4 21.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 19.0 88 4.2 24.6 70.0 66.7 100.0 2.03 92.8 90.0
Jacob Armant - 18 30.4 13.6 3.7 3.4 1.3 0.1 2.2 11.7 8.3 -98 -5.2 -25.9 41.0 38.2 73.6 0.77 52.5 49.0
Linus Helmhold - 19 24.4 13.4 6.6 1.5 0.3 0.7 2.6 7.4 12.4 -23 -1.3 -7.5 51.8 36.0 75.0 -1.1 63.8 55.0
Thomas Ferdinando - 1 36.0 11.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 7.0 82 5.1 21.4 44.4 33.3 100.0 -0.99 55.7 50.0
Timmy Mulvey - 1 36.0 11.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 0.0 91 5.7 20.8 28.6 42.9 0 1.68 39.3 39.3
Timmy O'Toole - 1 26.0 11.0 15.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 18.0 107 6.7 37.1 50.0 0.0 33.3 4.85 48.6 50.0
Tyler Lauder - 1 31.0 10.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 7.0 15.0 84 5.2 25.8 71.4 0 0 4.48 71.4 71.4
Cruz Billings - 1 24.3 9.0 2.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 12.0 67 3.0 23.1 40.0 50.0 100.0 2.45 66.6 50.0
Logan Murphy - 1 35.0 9.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 5.0 95 5.9 33.7 28.6 33.3 100.0 -1.19 54.1 42.9
Guillermo Gasset Ruiz - 20 27.0 8.2 4.4 2.2 1.2 1.1 1.9 5.8 9.4 -123 -6.5 -37.0 52.2 50.0 66.7 -1.15 65.3 64.3
Shay Roban - 20 13.3 7.5 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.8 6.2 3.2 -43 -2.4 -24.5 43.1 44.7 75.0 -0.07 59.3 58.5
Brendan Taylor - 13 10.7 6.2 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 4.5 2.6 -39 -3.0 -25.1 43.1 42.5 76.5 -0.34 61.1 57.8
Giulio Volonte - 19 13.2 6.1 3.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 1.1 5.4 4.1 4 0.2 3.2 46.6 25.0 93.3 -0.45 52.9 49.5
Jacob Simon - 1 17.5 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 - - - 66.7 66.7 0 - 100.0 100.0
Scott Schulz - 1 17.1 6.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 134 6.1 52.6 50.0 50.0 50.0 1.16 61.5 62.5
Tyler Dutto - 1 16.9 5.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 62.5 62.5
Brendan McNamara - 18 22.7 4.9 1.7 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 4.5 4.5 -79 -4.4 -30.2 39.5 36.4 64.3 -3.98 51.1 49.4
Alex Kim - 1 9.7 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -1.0 -33 -2.5 -37.3 50.0 0 0 -0.82 50.0 50.0
Asher Gardiner - 20 11.8 3.6 2.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 3.0 4.2 -86 -4.5 -63.7 50.8 0.0 50.0 -2.22 51.6 50.8
Jackson Bernardo - 1 12.6 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 12 0.7 7.7 100.0 100.0 0 -0.56 150.0 150.0
Jared Wilkins - 19 11.3 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.4 2.2 -9 -0.5 -3.6 50.0 13.3 62.5 -2.28 53.5 52.2
Roman Leraris - 15 6.1 2.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.3 -19 -1.4 -56.2 40.6 30.0 65.0 -0.23 51.5 45.3
Hank Gramlich - 20 13.3 2.7 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 1.0 2.1 4.1 -6 -0.4 -4.3 44.2 38.1 61.5 -0.21 55.4 53.5
Caden Zurek - 20 9.5 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 2.3 2.4 -77 -4.3 -79.5 39.1 33.3 60.0 -0.83 43.7 40.2
Joe Keegan - 1 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 35 1.8 40.2 100.0 0 0 1.36 100.0 100.0
Theo Lamb - 1 7.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -1.0 7 0.5 10.5 25.0 0 0 0.8 25.0 25.0
Ray Allen III - 11 6.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.5 1.7 -25 -2.1 -45.5 47.1 40.0 25.0 -0.82 56.0 58.8
Kieran Durkin - 8 6.1 1.8 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.6 2.8 - - - 38.5 0.0 36.4 - 39.2 38.5
Jeff Tan - 8 3.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.1 3 0.6 90.0 50.0 0 100.0 0.15 54.3 50.0
Blake Bailey - 9 2.9 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6 7 1.2 78.5 100.0 0 50.0 0.34 66.4 100.0
Yoav Rabbi - 7 2.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 -1.1 7 1.8 210.0 8.3 0.0 0 0.15 8.3 8.3
Vaughn Foster - 1 12.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 5 0.5 24.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.29 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG