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Elon

2013 Team Stats (2 games)

67.5
PPG
83.0
Opp
-15.5
Margin
39.4%
FG%
36.2%
3P%
85.7%
FT%
35.5
RPG
12.0
APG
13.5
TO
-
Est. poss./game
62.1
Adj PPG
64.4
Adj Opp PPG
#207
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 944 (#204) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 998 (#180) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 1015 (#149) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More โ†’ -2.7 (#209) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -4.4 (#232) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.566 (#134) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.7 More โ†’ 0.396 (#203) AdjNet -3.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.7 More โ†’ 0.394 (#202) AdjNet -3.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 62.1 | AdjD 64.4 More โ†’ 0.449 (#207) AdjO 62.1 | AdjD 64.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 64.3 More โ†’ 0.466 (#207) AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 64.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.449 (#196) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.453 (#195) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 123 | GP 31 More โ†’ 989 (#182) RD 123 | GP 31

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-10 @ Butler Bulldogs L 59 - 74
2012-11-13 vs Bridgewater College (VA) Eagles W 95 - 51
2012-11-17 vs Colgate Raiders W 41 - 35
2012-11-18 vs Florida Atlantic Owls W 62 - 59
2012-11-21 @ South Carolina Gamecocks W 65 - 53
2012-11-24 @ VMI Keydets L 81 - 90
2012-11-28 @ Georgia Southern Eagles W 55 - 50
2012-12-01 vs Charleston Cougars L 54 - 56
2012-12-04 vs Dartmouth Big Green W 71 - 49
2012-12-15 @ UMass Minutemen L 73 - 78
2012-12-20 @ Duke Blue Devils L 54 - 76
2012-12-22 @ Columbia Lions W 70 - 69
2012-12-31 vs Manchester Spartans W 84 - 49
2013-01-05 vs Princeton Tigers L 64 - 74
2013-01-12 @ Appalachian State Mountaineers L 70 - 80
2013-01-14 @ Western Carolina Catamounts W 80 - 67
2013-01-17 vs Furman Paladins W 73 - 59
2013-01-19 vs Wofford Terriers W 68 - 61
2013-01-24 vs Chattanooga Mocs W 85 - 61
2013-01-26 @ The Citadel Bulldogs W 70 - 66
2013-01-31 @ UNC Greensboro Spartans W 72 - 66
2013-02-02 vs Samford Bulldogs W 77 - 66
2013-02-07 @ Wofford Terriers L 50 - 60
2013-02-09 @ Furman Paladins W 64 - 60
2013-02-14 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers W 61 - 58
2013-02-16 vs Western Carolina Catamounts W 80 - 73
2013-02-21 @ Samford Bulldogs W 63 - 62
2013-02-23 @ Chattanooga Mocs L 68 - 72
2013-02-27 vs Davidson Wildcats L 63 - 69
2013-03-02 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 80 - 66
2013-03-09 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 68 - 61
2013-03-10 vs Charleston Cougars L 60 - 68
2013-03-20 @ Canisius Golden Griffins L 53 - 69

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lucas Troutman Lucas Troutman F 31 26.4 15.1 5.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 19.5 42 21 2.0 3.0 50.6 0 81.8 2.43 247.1 50.6
Jack Isenbarger Jack Isenbarger G 33 31.8 13.2 3.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 2.1 2.5 15.5 -4 23 -0.2 -0.2 42.9 44.1 84.2 -0.59 235.5 58.3
Ryley Beaumont Ryley Beaumont F 33 31.7 11.8 7.1 1.8 0.7 0.4 1.7 1.5 18.5 -29 23 -1.3 -1.7 47.1 31.6 85.7 0.03 358.7 52.9
Sebastian Koch Sebastian Koch G 32 30.8 9.6 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.3 1.5 1.6 14.8 -1 22 0.0 -0.1 38.5 35.3 70.0 0.07 271.3 50.0
Austin Hamilton Austin Hamilton G 16 25.1 7.4 2.6 3.2 1.5 0.2 1.8 2.1 11.1 -7 12 -0.6 -1.0 20.6 15.4 62.5 -0.22 158.6 23.5
Tanner Samson Tanner Samson G 32 28.1 7.1 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.9 11.9 12 23 0.5 0.8 31.0 30.4 0 -0.21 393.1 43.1
Josh Bonney Josh Bonney G 27 9.1 3.5 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.3 4.9 -30 18 -1.7 -9.1 14.3 25.0 75.0 -5.17 536.5 21.4
Ryan Winters Ryan Winters F 32 13.8 2.9 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 5.2 45 22 2.0 6.9 46.7 0 85.7 1.58 254.4 46.7
Kevin Blake Kevin Blake G 28 10.0 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 3.1 -51 20 -2.5 -12.1 50.0 0 40.0 -3.91 304.9 50.0
Egheosa Edomwonyi Egheosa Edomwonyi F 27 5.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.6 -29 17 -1.7 -13.2 100.0 0 0 -4.85 425.0 100.0
Tony Sabato Tony Sabato C 33 9.0 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 2.3 -45 23 -2.0 -9.6 44.4 0 50.0 -3.2 106.3 44.4
Aaron Smith Aaron Smith G 7 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 -0.87 175.0 0.0
John Moody John Moody G 9 3.1 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7 - - - - 0.0 0 0 -0.87 400.0 0.0
Roger Dugas Roger Dugas F 2 5.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 - - - - 0 0 0 -0.17 0 0
Sam Hershberger Sam Hershberger G 5 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 0.0
Wes Brewer Wes Brewer F 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG