🐻⬇️🏀

Elmira

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Elmira
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 985 (#265) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 936 (#416) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 950 (#563) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -11.4 (#300) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -10.4 (#502) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.349 (#521) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +2.3 More → 0.585 (#331) NetEff +2.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.5 More → 0.069 (#570) AdjNet -22.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.7 More → 0.064 (#569) AdjNet -22.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 67.1 More → 0.204 (#577) AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 67.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 59.3 More → 0.425 (#510) AdjO 55.9 | AdjD 59.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.309 (#519) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.326 (#514) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 94 | GP 22 More → 941 (#384) RD 94 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ SUNY Morrisville W 70 - 47
2025-11-09 @ SUNY Cobleskill L 58 - 60
2025-11-12 vs Misericordia L 59 - 71
2025-11-15 @ Hilbert W 70 - 51
2025-11-19 @ Penn College W 52 - 51
2025-11-22 vs Alfred St. W 69 - 54
2025-12-03 @ Marywood L 62 - 66
2025-12-13 vs Lycoming L 55 - 72
2025-12-30 vs Keystone W 73 - 48
2026-01-10 vs Russell Sage W 74 - 54
2026-01-13 vs SUNY Geneseo L 40 - 56
2026-01-16 @ Nazareth L 31 - 46
2026-01-17 @ St. John Fisher L 47 - 54
2026-01-23 @ SUNY Poly L 54 - 59
2026-01-24 @ Utica W 48 - 44
2026-01-27 @ Keuka W 68 - 49
2026-01-30 vs Alfred W 67 - 50
2026-01-31 vs Houghton L 47 - 72
2026-02-06 @ Russell Sage W 71 - 49
2026-02-07 @ Hartwick L 71 - 77

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Emma Ryan - 14 28.8 13.4 5.1 1.1 0.6 0.8 2.3 11.3 7.4 30 1.9 4.3 43.0 32.7 76.6 1.07 52.6 48.1
Amarionah Dixon - 20 27.1 12.8 10.3 2.6 2.2 0.8 4.3 12.7 11.7 33 1.6 5.5 40.7 26.1 70.5 -1.34 45.6 41.9
Lauren Miller - 19 25.4 10.1 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.3 2.4 9.9 3.4 14 2.0 3360.0 37.8 34.4 43.8 -0.02 49.2 49.2
Haley Mosch - 20 26.4 6.9 5.7 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.9 6.2 7.0 56 2.7 9.7 38.2 34.4 78.6 2.99 51.0 47.2
Mallory Welty - 20 17.9 5.0 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.7 6.2 3.3 -16 -0.8 -3.7 28.0 26.8 55.6 -1.93 39.2 38.4
Aynsley Belcher - 20 20.1 3.8 4.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 1.9 2.9 5.0 12 0.6 2.8 39.7 0 70.7 -1.1 49.3 39.7
Mia Welty - 20 10.6 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.6 3.0 2.5 -12 -0.6 -5.1 35.0 31.6 65.5 0.51 50.2 45.0
Kelsey Stewart - 20 19.1 2.8 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.0 1.2 2.9 2.9 5 0.2 1.1 37.9 31.8 57.1 2.73 45.0 44.0
Sophia Ward - 20 18.1 2.8 2.5 1.5 1.7 0.1 2.5 3.2 2.7 24 1.1 6.1 23.4 0.0 65.8 -3.05 34.1 23.4
Abby Belcher - 20 9.2 1.9 2.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.5 1 0.1 1.1 27.1 0 70.6 -0.01 34.2 27.1
Erin Bracken - 5 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 -1 -0.2 -15.2 66.7 0.0 50.0 0.23 63.0 66.7
Kylie Hook - 5 5.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.4 2 0.4 10.2 33.3 0 50.0 0.02 36.3 33.3
Hannah Nichols - 11 5.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 7 0.8 19.2 25.0 25.0 50.0 0.36 41.0 37.5
Delaney McCandless - 4 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 -0.5 -1 -0.2 -4.7 0 0 50.0 0.32 56.8 0
Mallory Schultz - 2 3.8 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 70 3.2 25.2 0.0 0.0 0 2.31 0.0 0.0
Piper Walnicki - 6 3.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -7 -1.0 -33.6 0.0 0.0 0 0.37 0.0 0.0
Krea Bonita - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Natalie Musolino - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG