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Elmira

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Elmira
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 917 (#509) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 892 (#506) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 842 (#726) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -19.1 (#357) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -17.2 (#641) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.249 (#631) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -25.4 More → 0.050 (#701) AdjNet -25.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -25.6 More → 0.048 (#701) AdjNet -25.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.7 | AdjD 90.5 More → 0.142 (#707) AdjO 70.7 | AdjD 90.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 81.3 More → 0.301 (#666) AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 81.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.176 (#689) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.190 (#688) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 23 More → 785 (#555) RD 98 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Ursinus L 65 - 84
2025-11-08 vs Misericordia L 70 - 81
2025-11-13 @ Penn St.-Scranton W 81 - 72
2025-11-15 vs Hilbert L 76 - 87
2025-11-18 @ Fredonia W 101 - 97
2025-11-23 vs Penn St. Brandywine W 90 - 84
2025-12-01 vs SUNY ESF W 90 - 61
2025-12-05 vs Penn College W 96 - 95
2025-12-06 @ Saint Elizabeth L 66 - 85
2025-12-29 @ Binghamton L 60 - 100
2026-01-06 @ SUNY Brockport L 71 - 83
2026-01-09 vs Hartwick W 80 - 66
2026-01-10 vs Russell Sage L 79 - 95
2026-01-13 vs SUNY Geneseo L 76 - 91
2026-01-16 @ Nazareth L 78 - 84
2026-01-17 @ St. John Fisher L 84 - 87
2026-01-23 @ SUNY Poly L 63 - 73
2026-01-24 @ Utica L 77 - 94
2026-01-27 @ Keuka L 68 - 74
2026-01-30 vs Alfred W 64 - 62
2026-01-31 vs Houghton W 73 - 58
2026-02-06 @ Russell Sage L 77 - 80
2026-02-07 @ Hartwick L 91 - 100

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kelton Brown - 22 33.0 19.0 7.6 3.7 2.2 0.5 3.9 14.2 15.0 24 1.2 3.6 51.6 36.9 53.8 0.57 56.3 55.4
Tyler Cardello - 23 26.5 15.1 4.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 1.7 12.6 8.5 26 1.3 4.7 40.0 22.9 70.5 -0.56 50.2 44.3
Alec Mercer - 23 23.2 10.2 2.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.0 9.4 3.5 26 1.3 5.3 33.6 31.8 83.0 0.45 49.4 45.2
Chris Woodard - 4 22.8 10.0 7.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 2.0 7.0 10.5 20 6.7 54.3 57.1 0.0 57.1 0.9 58.5 57.1
Emmanuel Karkari-Mensah - 22 30.7 9.6 4.0 1.9 1.3 0.2 1.6 8.5 6.9 7 0.4 1.3 33.9 32.5 86.0 -2.89 50.2 43.8
JJ Babcock - 22 24.2 6.3 6.5 2.5 0.6 1.0 2.0 5.9 8.9 15 0.8 3.4 38.5 27.1 53.5 1.21 46.7 44.6
Jude Wilkins - 22 14.7 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.0 4.7 3.0 -9 -0.5 -3.6 32.7 25.4 80.6 -2.28 47.2 41.3
AJ Graham - 22 12.3 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 2.8 3.0 -19 -1.0 -7.7 40.3 20.0 42.9 -1.24 45.6 45.2
Daemon Thomas - 22 17.3 2.7 3.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.2 2.6 3.9 39 1.9 14.3 29.3 19.5 81.8 3.19 44.3 36.2
Amin Ba-Ahmad - 14 5.9 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 1.4 51 4.2 109.7 42.3 25.0 52.0 1.37 50.0 46.2
Carter Seeberger - 13 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 45 3.8 45.8 50.0 45.5 0 2.55 67.9 67.9
Owen Evans - 17 6.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 -2 -0.1 -2.1 31.6 27.8 100.0 3.52 50.6 44.7
Jhoan Adames - 2 3.6 1.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Damair Burton - 3 1.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 -1.0 -77 -4.3 -28.5 33.3 0.0 0 -1.37 33.3 33.3
Sidney Lewinsky - 3 2.5 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 -11 -5.5 -256.3 33.3 0 0 -0.85 33.3 33.3
Connor van der Sommen - 11 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 -0.3 -7 -0.9 -35.1 16.7 0.0 50.0 -1.0 19.4 16.7
Jack O'Grady - 16 6.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 -38 -2.7 -26.2 25.0 0.0 50.0 -2.42 30.7 25.0
Ezra Ontl - 6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 -10 -2.0 -80.3 33.3 0.0 0 -1.05 33.3 33.3
Sam Cunha - 3 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Sam Ruggles - 9 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 -0.4 3 0.5 30.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.55 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG