🐻⬇️🏀

Elmhurst

Also known as: Elmhurst
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1097 (#107) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1134 (#87) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1103 (#93) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +3.7 (#76) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +0.6 (#340) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.581 (#415) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +4.6 More → 0.631 (#304) AdjNet +4.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.4 More → 0.625 (#304) AdjNet +4.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.0 | AdjD 72.7 More → 0.573 (#311) AdjO 76.0 | AdjD 72.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 71.4 More → 0.599 (#215) AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 71.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.623 (#294) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.625 (#295) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 21 More → 1171 (#86) RD 96 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-12 vs Hope W 71 - 66
2025-11-15 vs Wis. Lutheran W 75 - 50
2025-11-19 vs MSOE W 71 - 67
2025-11-22 @ Illinois Col. W 73 - 72
2025-11-25 @ DePauw W 75 - 71
2025-12-02 @ Wis.-Whitewater L 72 - 88
2025-12-06 @ Wheaton (IL) L 81 - 82
2025-12-13 vs Ill. Wesleyan W 67 - 66
2025-12-17 vs Greenville W 137 - 100
2025-12-19 @ Coe L 65 - 68
2025-12-30 vs Ripon W 84 - 57
2026-01-03 @ Carthage L 65 - 80
2026-01-07 vs Millikin L 77 - 83
2026-01-10 vs Augustana (IL) W 77 - 64
2026-01-14 @ Carroll (WI) L 61 - 92
2026-01-17 @ North Park W 81 - 75
2026-01-21 vs Carthage W 72 - 60
2026-01-24 vs North Central (IL) W 82 - 80
2026-01-31 @ Millikin W 80 - 72
2026-02-04 @ Augustana (IL) W 81 - 62
2026-02-07 @ Ill. Wesleyan L 69 - 91

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Dominic Trelenberg - 21 34.0 18.4 5.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 1.2 13.0 12.6 -10 -0.5 -2.5 49.1 41.1 73.3 -0.81 61.9 58.8
Vinnie Adjahoungbeta - 21 29.2 12.3 7.4 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.9 8.4 13.4 -5 -0.2 -1.3 47.5 47.6 76.9 -1.31 61.0 55.9
Aidyn Boone - 21 24.7 10.0 5.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.2 7.6 9.2 24 1.2 8.2 44.7 35.3 83.0 3.06 58.7 54.1
Luke Smith - 21 26.3 10.0 3.0 3.3 0.7 0.1 2.0 8.7 6.5 -8 -0.5 -7.4 40.7 32.4 81.1 -1.15 53.2 49.7
Sebastian Blachut - 21 26.8 9.5 2.9 2.8 0.6 0.3 2.1 7.2 6.8 49 2.5 15.7 46.1 28.3 68.7 0.9 54.8 50.3
Jack Cherry - 21 19.0 5.0 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.2 -67 -3.4 -32.4 47.9 37.1 80.8 -0.61 61.6 56.8
Talen Pearson - 21 19.2 4.7 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.2 4.0 3.5 -37 -1.9 -16.9 41.7 31.9 68.4 1.84 53.1 50.6
EJ Marshall - 21 13.5 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.0 -93 -4.7 -55.1 35.3 23.8 78.1 0.12 47.5 39.0
Jeffrey Williams - 14 7.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 1.1 -8 -0.6 -49.2 42.3 28.6 40.0 -0.41 49.6 50.0
Brent Collar - 3 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -7 -3.5 -152.7 66.7 0.0 50.0 0.17 64.4 66.7
Andy Colvin - 6 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3 0.8 12.5 50.0 100.0 75.0 0.22 64.4 58.3
John Witcher - 13 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0 0.0 0.0 60.0 50.0 66.7 -0.93 79.5 80.0
DJ Jervier - 5 3.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.4 -11 -2.8 -138.9 28.6 0.0 50.0 -0.02 31.7 28.6
Oliver Adams - 8 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 -19 -2.7 -241.3 50.0 0 50.0 -0.59 52.1 50.0
Evan Salvador - 5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2 0.7 43.6 0 0 50.0 0.17 56.8 0
Simon Weisserman - 3 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -1 -0.5 -30.0 0.0 0 0 -0.19 0.0 0.0
Cooper Hasz - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Evangelos Rafail Mitropoulos - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Stefan Soh - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Steven Tierney - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Stanton Turner - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Charalampos Vasilopoulos - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jaeden Warrener - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Quintin Wieneck - 2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 -0.19 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG