Edward Waters
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1198 (#30) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1116 (#78) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1157 (#35) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.2 (#136) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.8 (#159) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.524 (#350) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.855 (#159) | NetEff +12.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.428 (#435) | AdjNet -2.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.430 (#436) | AdjNet -2.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.452 (#443) | AdjO 60.3 | AdjD 62.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.734 (#60) | AdjO 60.5 | AdjD 49.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.795 (#103) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.804 (#89) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1194 (#50) | RD 99 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Florida Tech | L | 65 - 70 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Kentucky St. | L | 54 - 58 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Lane | L | 71 - 73 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | LeMoyne-Owen | W | 72 - 52 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Clark Atlanta | W | 64 - 61 |
| 2025-12-05 | vs | Bethune-Cookman | W | 55 - 46 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Hampton | L | 47 - 65 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Spring Hill | W | 58 - 43 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Albany St. (GA) | W | 71 - 42 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Miles | W | 57 - 47 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Tuskegee | W | 52 - 44 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Shorter | W | 54 - 42 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Fort Valley St. | W | 72 - 34 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Allen | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Savannah St. | W | 69 - 48 |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Benedict | W | 56 - 55 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Lane | W | 69 - 46 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Kentucky St. | W | 59 - 47 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Central St. (OH) | W | 64 - 38 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | LeMoyne-Owen | W | 50 - 36 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Spring Hill | W | 66 - 32 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Albany St. (GA) | W | 89 - 49 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imani Harris | - | 21 | 26.8 | 12.0 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 62 | 3.1 | 23.3 | 43.6 | 23.5 | 65.1 | 0.2 | 50.2 | 44.6 |
| Tan Brown | - | 22 | 25.4 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 72 | 4.0 | 27.6 | 41.9 | 33.1 | 74.4 | 2.93 | 55.3 | 52.4 |
| Shcira Fowles | - | 22 | 29.1 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 70 | 3.9 | 25.3 | 43.6 | 20.9 | 76.9 | 0.46 | 49.0 | 46.3 |
| Diana Letaru | - | 22 | 18.5 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 53 | 2.8 | 31.7 | 48.4 | 33.3 | 64.3 | 1.01 | 49.9 | 48.8 |
| Xaniya Jackson | - | 22 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 46 | 2.6 | 27.1 | 48.2 | 0.0 | 74.1 | 0.24 | 51.7 | 48.2 |
| Zahra Daniel | - | 16 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 34 | 2.6 | 19.7 | 43.3 | 33.3 | 77.8 | 1.76 | 55.2 | 50.8 |
| AMELYA HATCH | - | 1 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 68 | 3.8 | 35.9 | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | 3.47 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Kaylynn Asberry | - | 21 | 13.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 21 | 1.1 | 20.5 | 29.5 | 20.5 | 67.6 | 1.77 | 42.0 | 35.3 |
| Nia Brown | - | 22 | 23.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 26 | 1.4 | 10.4 | 31.0 | 23.7 | 50.0 | -2.24 | 36.4 | 36.2 |
| Jourdan Avery | - | 18 | 13.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 65 | 3.6 | 41.1 | 30.0 | 12.5 | 60.9 | 5.44 | 36.4 | 30.8 |
| Denver Arnold | - | 14 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 20 | 1.7 | 26.6 | 30.0 | 22.2 | 77.8 | 0.66 | 39.8 | 35.0 |
| Brittney Sparrow | - | 10 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 9 | 0.8 | 22.6 | 55.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.1 | 60.7 | 61.1 |
| Biyyanah Ellis | - | 3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 10 | 5.0 | 1714.3 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.0 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Kalisha Phillips | - | 17 | 9.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 28.6 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.54 | 36.3 | 28.6 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG