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Ecclesia

Also known as: Ecclesia
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 945 (#326) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 778 (#527) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 916 (#523) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -18.3 (#307) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -17.9 (#518) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.002 (#721) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -39.6 More → 0.010 (#740) AdjNet -39.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -39.3 More → 0.009 (#740) AdjNet -39.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 62.6 | AdjD 92.6 More → 0.062 (#738) AdjO 62.6 | AdjD 92.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 80.5 More → 0.225 (#577) AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 80.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.164 (#554) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.167 (#561) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 271 | GP 9 More → 745 (#493) RD 271 | GP 9

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-17 @ Southwest Baptist L 48 - 59
2025-11-19 @ Drury L 68 - 108
2025-11-22 @ Ouachita Baptist L 47 - 100
2025-11-24 @ Northeastern St. L 59 - 102
2025-11-26 @ Missouri S&T L 61 - 75
2025-11-29 @ Ark.-Monticello L 61 - 106
2025-12-01 @ Harding L 60 - 77
2025-12-09 @ Arkansas Tech L 51 - 94
2025-12-12 @ Ark.-Fort Smith L 46 - 84

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Cameron Stovall - 1 30.8 21.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 13.0 23.0 80 3.8 22.1 61.5 66.7 100.0 1.75 73.3 69.2
Jadorian Jones - 7 32.1 17.0 7.6 1.3 1.6 0.3 2.9 14.4 10.4 24 1.1 5.3 42.6 22.7 70.0 0.56 50.2 45.0
Alex Benassi - 1 31.6 15.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 10.0 13.0 136 6.5 39.5 40.0 75.0 100.0 6.41 63.8 55.0
Dylan Hall - 1 19.9 13.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 11.0 -10 -0.6 -5.4 55.6 33.3 100.0 -0.73 65.8 61.1
Ty Suess - 1 28.6 12.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 101 5.0 35.0 30.0 0.0 85.7 0.05 45.9 30.0
Adam Rickman - 1 30.3 11.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 16.0 -15 -0.8 -5.5 71.4 0 20.0 -1.67 59.8 71.4
Rece Hipp - 1 30.1 11.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 9.0 -81 -4.5 -52.4 57.1 60.0 0 -4.26 78.6 78.6
Blaise Beauchamp - 1 26.4 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 -1.0 44 2.2 11.3 25.0 18.2 0 1.33 31.2 31.2
Ezekiel Blades - 7 29.5 9.3 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 8.7 3.1 - - - 37.7 29.4 50.0 - 47.2 45.9
Daniel Henderson - 1 12.2 8.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 -20 -1.7 -24.1 66.7 0.0 0 -1.17 66.7 66.7
Dylan Munroe - 1 16.2 8.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 8.0 -10 -0.8 -6.8 66.7 0 0.0 -2.55 58.1 66.7
Oliver Kokal - 1 14.4 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 -18 -0.9 -11.9 66.7 0 75.0 -1.87 73.5 66.7
Thompson Camara - 1 9.2 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 52 2.6 18.5 25.0 100.0 100.0 -0.33 60.8 37.5
Fred Marsh - 7 23.8 6.4 5.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 1.9 7.6 4.3 - - - 34.0 26.1 75.0 - 41.1 39.6
Marko Rangan - 1 12.2 6.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 4.0 59 3.1 28.6 30.0 0.0 0 2.21 30.0 30.0
Dwayne Foley - 1 20.6 5.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 -27 -1.8 -36.3 25.0 50.0 100.0 1.11 51.2 37.5
Garrett Hines - 1 5.3 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 13 1.3 8.3 66.7 50.0 0 0.58 83.3 83.3
Wesley Booker - 1 25.9 5.0 9.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 11.0 122 6.1 30.5 25.0 16.7 0 1.84 31.2 31.2
Quintus McNeal - 7 18.5 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 5.9 -0.3 - - - 34.1 8.3 62.5 - 38.2 35.4
Reggie Webster - 1 25.4 3.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 2.0 128 6.4 33.2 12.5 0.0 50.0 2.77 16.9 12.5
Ornette Gaines - 1 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -9 -0.7 -5.4 100.0 0 0 -2.95 100.0 100.0
Karter Holland - 1 11.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 -3.0 -16 -3.2 -83.7 16.7 0.0 0.0 -0.99 15.5 16.7
Ahmad Raymond - 2 15.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 -0.5 - - - 16.7 0.0 50.0 - 25.8 16.7
Michael Kimmel - 7 11.4 1.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.1 2.4 - - - 25.0 100.0 66.7 - 42.3 31.2
Darron Henry - 1 12.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -1.0 -58 -2.9 -40.8 0.0 0.0 50.0 -1.8 10.2 0.0
KJ Merriweather - 5 8.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.2 - - - 14.3 50.0 0 - 21.4 21.4
Zac Brown - 1 19.8 0.0 7.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 69 3.6 51.5 0.0 0 0 1.22 0.0 0.0
Aidan Burns - 1 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -28 -1.6 -17.1 0 0 0 -2.61 0 0
Martez Burse - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -16 -2.3 -49.1 0.0 0.0 0 -0.04 0.0 0.0
Ben Linnemeyer - 1 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -15 -2.1 -32.1 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG