Ecclesia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 945 (#326) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 778 (#527) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 916 (#523) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -18.3 (#307) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -17.9 (#518) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.002 (#721) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.010 (#740) | AdjNet -39.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.009 (#740) | AdjNet -39.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.062 (#738) | AdjO 62.6 | AdjD 92.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.225 (#577) | AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 80.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.164 (#554) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.167 (#561) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 745 (#493) | RD 271 | GP 9 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Southwest Baptist | L | 48 - 59 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Drury | L | 68 - 108 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Ouachita Baptist | L | 47 - 100 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Northeastern St. | L | 59 - 102 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Missouri S&T | L | 61 - 75 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Ark.-Monticello | L | 61 - 106 |
| 2025-12-01 | @ | Harding | L | 60 - 77 |
| 2025-12-09 | @ | Arkansas Tech | L | 51 - 94 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | L | 46 - 84 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Stovall | - | 1 | 30.8 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 80 | 3.8 | 22.1 | 61.5 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 1.75 | 73.3 | 69.2 |
| Jadorian Jones | - | 7 | 32.1 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 24 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 42.6 | 22.7 | 70.0 | 0.56 | 50.2 | 45.0 |
| Alex Benassi | - | 1 | 31.6 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 136 | 6.5 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 6.41 | 63.8 | 55.0 |
| Dylan Hall | - | 1 | 19.9 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -10 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 55.6 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.73 | 65.8 | 61.1 |
| Ty Suess | - | 1 | 28.6 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 101 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 85.7 | 0.05 | 45.9 | 30.0 |
| Adam Rickman | - | 1 | 30.3 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | -15 | -0.8 | -5.5 | 71.4 | 0 | 20.0 | -1.67 | 59.8 | 71.4 |
| Rece Hipp | - | 1 | 30.1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -81 | -4.5 | -52.4 | 57.1 | 60.0 | 0 | -4.26 | 78.6 | 78.6 |
| Blaise Beauchamp | - | 1 | 26.4 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 | 44 | 2.2 | 11.3 | 25.0 | 18.2 | 0 | 1.33 | 31.2 | 31.2 |
| Ezekiel Blades | - | 7 | 29.5 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 8.7 | 3.1 | - | - | - | 37.7 | 29.4 | 50.0 | - | 47.2 | 45.9 |
| Daniel Henderson | - | 1 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | -20 | -1.7 | -24.1 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.17 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Dylan Munroe | - | 1 | 16.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -10 | -0.8 | -6.8 | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | -2.55 | 58.1 | 66.7 |
| Oliver Kokal | - | 1 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -18 | -0.9 | -11.9 | 66.7 | 0 | 75.0 | -1.87 | 73.5 | 66.7 |
| Thompson Camara | - | 1 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 52 | 2.6 | 18.5 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -0.33 | 60.8 | 37.5 |
| Fred Marsh | - | 7 | 23.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | - | - | - | 34.0 | 26.1 | 75.0 | - | 41.1 | 39.6 |
| Marko Rangan | - | 1 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 59 | 3.1 | 28.6 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.21 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Dwayne Foley | - | 1 | 20.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | -27 | -1.8 | -36.3 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 1.11 | 51.2 | 37.5 |
| Garrett Hines | - | 1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 13 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.58 | 83.3 | 83.3 |
| Wesley Booker | - | 1 | 25.9 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 122 | 6.1 | 30.5 | 25.0 | 16.7 | 0 | 1.84 | 31.2 | 31.2 |
| Quintus McNeal | - | 7 | 18.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 5.9 | -0.3 | - | - | - | 34.1 | 8.3 | 62.5 | - | 38.2 | 35.4 |
| Reggie Webster | - | 1 | 25.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 128 | 6.4 | 33.2 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 2.77 | 16.9 | 12.5 |
| Ornette Gaines | - | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -9 | -0.7 | -5.4 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.95 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Karter Holland | - | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 | -16 | -3.2 | -83.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.99 | 15.5 | 16.7 |
| Ahmad Raymond | - | 2 | 15.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 16.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 25.8 | 16.7 |
| Michael Kimmel | - | 7 | 11.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.4 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 100.0 | 66.7 | - | 42.3 | 31.2 |
| Darron Henry | - | 1 | 12.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -58 | -2.9 | -40.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.8 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| KJ Merriweather | - | 5 | 8.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 21.4 | 21.4 |
| Zac Brown | - | 1 | 19.8 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 69 | 3.6 | 51.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Aidan Burns | - | 1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -28 | -1.6 | -17.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Martez Burse | - | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -16 | -2.3 | -49.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ben Linnemeyer | - | 1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -15 | -2.1 | -32.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG