🐻⬇️🏀

Drury

Also known as: Drury
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 945 (#327) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1009 (#240) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1012 (#224) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +6.6 (#146) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +6.5 (#218) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.612 (#276) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +16.4 More → 0.856 (#210) NetEff +16.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +12.4 More → 0.807 (#228) AdjNet +12.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.6 More → 0.813 (#227) AdjNet +12.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 83.2 | AdjD 73.4 More → 0.709 (#225) AdjO 83.2 | AdjD 73.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.0 | AdjD 77.4 More → 0.602 (#146) AdjO 82.0 | AdjD 77.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.655 (#185) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.641 (#191) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 92 | GP 23 More → 1039 (#187) RD 92 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Ohio Dominican W 70 - 65
2025-11-15 vs Thomas More W 71 - 59
2025-11-19 vs Ecclesia W 108 - 68
2025-11-22 vs Ozark Christian W 90 - 62
2025-11-25 vs Concordia-St. Paul L 83 - 94
2025-11-26 vs Central Mo. L 67 - 89
2025-12-01 @ Southwest Baptist L 59 - 76
2025-12-04 @ Truman St. L 79 - 86
2025-12-06 @ Quincy L 55 - 72
2025-12-17 vs Cent. Christian Bib. W 137 - 62
2025-12-21 vs Ark.-Fort Smith L 86 - 94
2026-01-02 vs Rockhurst W 104 - 98
2026-01-04 vs William Jewell L 69 - 73
2026-01-08 vs Missouri S&T L 79 - 81
2026-01-10 vs Lincoln (MO) W 85 - 79
2026-01-15 @ Maryville (MO) W 82 - 68
2026-01-17 @ McKendree L 76 - 89
2026-01-22 vs Ill. Springfield L 72 - 87
2026-01-23 vs UIndy W 107 - 89
2026-01-29 @ Lewis W 75 - 63
2026-01-31 @ Upper Iowa L 76 - 96
2026-02-05 vs Quincy W 87 - 85
2026-02-07 vs Truman St. W 80 - 70

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Zach Howell - 23 32.7 18.2 4.8 2.2 1.5 0.5 1.3 11.1 14.8 -69 -3.0 -10.9 50.4 47.3 86.2 -1.84 70.3 65.8
Colin Hardrick - 23 35.0 15.4 6.6 3.7 1.5 0.7 1.9 13.0 13.2 -29 -1.3 -4.2 42.3 29.8 68.2 2.68 51.2 47.0
KeShaun Thomas - 23 27.4 15.3 6.6 1.9 1.3 0.1 2.1 10.5 12.4 -37 -1.6 -7.1 49.4 18.4 78.5 -3.07 58.4 50.8
Isaiah Otyaluk - 21 17.3 9.1 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 6.7 4.6 -34 -1.6 -13.3 51.4 43.7 69.2 0.69 65.5 65.0
Luke Stubbs - 21 28.3 9.1 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.1 1.7 7.2 5.8 -52 -2.5 -10.4 47.7 43.2 74.4 -2.55 57.1 54.0
Avante Nichols - 7 22.5 8.4 5.3 1.1 1.6 0.4 1.4 6.1 9.3 -91 -13.0 -68.0 65.1 20.0 50.0 -2.22 65.9 66.3
Keion Epps - 20 25.0 5.7 2.6 5.0 1.5 0.1 2.4 5.3 7.2 -34 -1.7 -10.2 37.7 29.4 70.4 0.35 48.4 44.8
Ethan Whatley - 9 16.6 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 4.6 2.1 -26 -2.9 -28.6 36.6 34.5 0 2.23 48.8 48.8
Kevin Sargeant - 15 16.3 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 3.0 6.3 26 1.6 8.0 57.8 0.0 43.8 3.55 56.7 57.8
Sekou Gassama - 19 12.6 3.5 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 2.4 3.7 1 0.1 0.6 47.8 0.0 59.0 2.65 53.0 47.8
Gezim Bajrami - 13 7.1 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 2.6 2.8 3 0.2 13.9 35.3 20.0 69.2 -0.26 45.3 39.7
Brady Nicholson - 9 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 -6 -0.7 -21.3 28.6 22.2 0.0 1.24 33.6 35.7
Wyatt Carr - 6 3.9 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 -2 -0.3 -25.8 20.0 0.0 75.0 0.55 37.0 20.0
Brenley Hagewood - 3 3.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG