Dist. Columbia
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 906 (#446) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 845 (#485) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 867 (#637) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -11.5 (#253) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -10.4 (#513) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.392 (#404) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.999 (#49) | NetEff +55.1 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.234 (#352) | NetEff -8.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.244 (#496) | AdjNet -9.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.246 (#498) | AdjNet -9.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.388 (#473) | AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 68.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.320 (#601) | AdjO 56.2 | AdjD 64.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.222 (#585) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.229 (#586) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 813 (#461) | RD 112 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | George Washington | L | 47 - 86 |
| 2025-11-06 | @ | Norfolk St. | L | 39 - 85 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Goldey-Beacom | W | 43 - 37 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Wilmington (DE) | W | 74 - 36 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Virginia St. | L | 52 - 55 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Frostburg St. | L | 61 - 69 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Virginia Union | L | 28 - 54 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Bowie St. | L | 54 - 81 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 72 - 62 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Mercy | L | 54 - 73 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Staten Island | L | 56 - 57 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Assumption | L | 48 - 55 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Lincoln (PA) | W | 58 - 52 |
| 2026-01-11 | @ | D'Youville | L | 60 - 68 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Mercy | L | 50 - 75 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 80 - 51 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Roberts Wesleyan | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Queens (NY) | L | 57 - 67 |
| 2026-02-06 | vs | Daemen | L | 51 - 79 |
| 2026-02-08 | vs | D'Youville | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiyana Ellis | - | 15 | 33.1 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 11.1 | 10.9 | - | - | - | 38.6 | 22.2 | 71.0 | - | 45.0 | 39.2 |
| Nhaikyia Smith | - | 17 | 31.1 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 38 | 1.7 | 18.2 | 38.7 | 28.6 | 69.8 | 2.68 | 48.9 | 43.0 |
| Dashani Coleman | - | 17 | 30.9 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 31.9 | 25.7 | 71.1 | -0.06 | 40.3 | 36.7 |
| Le'Asia Todd | - | 1 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 21.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 58.1 | 66.7 |
| Kristian Harris | - | 17 | 30.6 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 9.3 | 3.9 | -126 | -7.4 | -40.2 | 31.0 | 29.2 | 52.9 | -0.93 | 35.6 | 33.2 |
| LeAsia Todd | - | 9 | 24.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 9.2 | - | - | - | 67.7 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 70.3 | 67.7 |
| Calista Gaymon | - | 17 | 19.9 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 1.4 | - | - | - | 36.7 | 20.0 | 65.4 | - | 43.9 | 40.3 |
| Maya Johnson | - | 17 | 20.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 42 | 2.1 | 24.0 | 26.3 | 27.0 | 59.0 | 2.63 | 37.0 | 31.6 |
| Shaima James Lewis | - | 7 | 20.9 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 135 | 6.1 | 40.2 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 44.4 | 1.64 | 48.6 | 48.0 |
| Aliyah Eason | - | 7 | 18.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 1.3 | - | - | - | 26.1 | 21.7 | 75.0 | - | 33.5 | 31.5 |
| Shaima James | - | 8 | 19.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 5.2 | -2 | -0.3 | -3.5 | 45.0 | 20.0 | 70.0 | -2.08 | 53.3 | 47.5 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG