🐻⬇️🏀

Dickinson

Also known as: Dickinson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1069 (#107) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1182 (#66) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1109 (#86) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +12.2 (#74) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +8.6 (#222) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.703 (#364) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +5.1 More → 0.672 (#290) NetEff +5.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.4 More → 0.881 (#225) AdjNet +17.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +16.8 More → 0.880 (#229) AdjNet +16.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 62.7 | AdjD 54.1 More → 0.685 (#248) AdjO 62.7 | AdjD 54.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 52.7 More → 0.685 (#140) AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 52.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.768 (#154) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.763 (#152) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 22 More → 1201 (#66) RD 98 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Randolph-Macon L 59 - 68
2025-11-12 vs Messiah W 78 - 57
2025-11-15 vs Bethany (WV) W 70 - 61
2025-11-16 @ Emory L 55 - 82
2025-11-20 @ Misericordia W 60 - 51
2025-11-25 vs Shenandoah L 60 - 72
2025-12-03 @ McDaniel W 59 - 57
2025-12-09 vs York (PA) W 74 - 54
2025-12-13 vs Widener L 61 - 65
2025-12-20 @ Elizabethtown W 66 - 49
2026-01-10 @ Swarthmore W 59 - 52
2026-01-14 vs McDaniel L 29 - 67
2026-01-17 @ Haverford W 60 - 42
2026-01-21 @ Gettysburg L 45 - 64
2026-01-24 vs Franklin & Marshall W 68 - 50
2026-01-28 @ Johns Hopkins L 40 - 60
2026-01-31 vs Ursinus W 62 - 43
2026-02-04 vs Muhlenberg W 62 - 57
2026-02-07 @ Washington Col. W 59 - 49

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mia Chapman - 19 23.8 11.8 6.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.7 9.6 9.5 22 1.0 7.1 43.4 0.0 81.7 4.42 51.6 43.4
Victoria Zerbe - 19 29.3 10.2 7.5 2.6 1.5 0.9 2.7 9.1 10.8 62 3.0 13.4 49.1 0.0 76.7 5.07 51.8 49.1
Lizzie McGrath - 19 30.9 9.3 4.1 2.6 1.7 0.3 2.6 9.7 5.5 10 0.5 2.1 34.2 26.9 90.0 1.15 45.6 42.9
Clare Cronley - 19 26.9 8.2 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.2 2.1 9.2 4.1 -11 -0.5 -2.8 31.6 37.7 82.1 0.99 41.9 38.2
Addison Cadwell - 19 19.6 6.2 3.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 2.0 7.0 2.9 -17 -0.8 -5.0 29.3 30.6 72.5 -0.24 39.2 33.5
Emma Landes - 19 14.5 3.9 3.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.8 3.3 4.1 4 0.2 1.5 39.7 0.0 56.8 0.47 45.5 39.7
Jelena Subasic - 16 9.3 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.4 0.3 -53 -3.1 -31.7 34.5 40.7 0 -0.19 44.5 44.5
Esther Nlebemuo - 18 13.0 2.5 4.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.9 4.3 -11 -0.6 -6.9 38.5 0.0 62.5 -2.45 40.5 38.5
Leah Dubin - 19 20.9 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.0 2.2 1.9 3.1 3 0.1 1.2 36.1 30.0 40.0 -2.01 44.6 44.4
Jessica Maina - 16 6.0 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 2.3 -0.5 -18 -1.0 -23.4 24.3 28.1 0 -2.27 36.5 36.5
Gabby Smelcer - 17 6.9 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.5 -35 -1.8 -33.2 17.9 0.0 85.7 1.33 25.7 17.9
Lily Spanos - 8 3.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 -35 -3.9 -255.3 25.0 0.0 60.0 -0.54 34.3 25.0
Sophie Zirkin - 7 3.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 -22 -2.8 -261.4 25.0 25.0 0 -0.63 37.5 37.5

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG