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Delaware State

Also known as: Delaware State Hornets
Program History

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 789 (#280) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 880 (#253) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 977 (#206) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More โ†’ -9.2 (#293) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -7.6 (#280) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.271 (#277) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -15.2 More โ†’ 0.148 (#304) AdjNet -15.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.4 More โ†’ 0.144 (#304) AdjNet -15.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 57.2 | AdjD 65.8 More โ†’ 0.315 (#291) AdjO 57.2 | AdjD 65.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.9 | AdjD 64.1 More โ†’ 0.406 (#259) AdjO 59.9 | AdjD 64.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.284 (#282) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.300 (#277) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 128 | GP 31 More โ†’ 864 (#264) RD 128 | GP 31

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-10 vs Gwynedd-Mercy College Griffins W 74 - 56
2012-11-12 vs Cairn University Highlanders W 95 - 46
2012-11-14 vs Wagner Seahawks W 73 - 69
2012-11-18 @ Illinois State Redbirds L 48 - 87
2012-11-20 @ Northwestern Wildcats L 50 - 69
2012-11-23 @ Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 62 - 63
2012-11-24 vs Navy Midshipmen L 53 - 63
2012-11-28 @ Eastern Kentucky Colonels L 51 - 84
2012-12-01 vs Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks W 76 - 66
2012-12-08 @ Delaware Blue Hens W 73 - 67
2012-12-15 @ Penn State Nittany Lions L 76 - 80
2012-12-19 @ Pittsburgh Panthers L 43 - 71
2012-12-29 @ Maryland Terrapins L 50 - 79
2013-01-02 @ Marshall Thundering Herd W 53 - 51
2013-01-05 @ Arkansas Razorbacks L 51 - 86
2013-01-19 @ Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks L 53 - 58
2013-01-23 vs Howard Bison W 63 - 46
2013-01-26 @ Bethune-Cookman Wildcats W 68 - 52
2013-01-28 @ Florida A&M Rattlers W 57 - 48
2013-02-02 vs North Carolina Central Eagles L 43 - 54
2013-02-04 vs North Carolina A&T Aggies W 53 - 44
2013-02-09 @ Norfolk State Spartans L 56 - 74
2013-02-11 @ Hampton Pirates L 84 - 85
2013-02-16 vs Coppin State Eagles W 57 - 43
2013-02-18 vs Morgan State Bears W 52 - 50
2013-02-23 vs Norfolk State Spartans L 56 - 60
2013-02-25 vs Hampton Pirates L 50 - 57
2013-03-02 @ Howard Bison W 56 - 53
2013-03-04 @ Morgan State Bears L 47 - 66
2013-03-07 @ South Carolina State Bulldogs L 60 - 62
2013-03-12 vs Howard Bison W 73 - 61
2013-03-14 @ Hampton Pirates W 63 - 60
2013-03-15 vs North Carolina A&T Aggies L 78 - 84

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tahj Tate Tahj Tate - 32 34.7 12.8 3.1 2.2 1.3 0.2 2.9 1.0 15.8 - - - - 46.9 20.0 55.6 - 570.1 50.0
Marques Oliver Marques Oliver F 32 28.8 9.2 7.0 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.0 17.6 -59 18 -3.3 -4.8 66.7 0 69.6 -0.42 342.1 66.7
Casey Walker Casey Walker G 33 30.7 8.6 3.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.2 11.5 -135 19 -7.1 -9.7 36.8 31.0 100.0 -2.61 366.5 48.7
Tyshawn Bell Tyshawn Bell F 31 21.2 8.0 2.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 10.7 -85 19 -4.5 -9.3 47.8 33.3 75.0 0.63 498.8 56.5
Amere May Amere May G 26 16.9 6.0 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 1.3 0.8 7.7 -100 15 -6.7 -16.4 45.0 80.0 42.9 -2.95 335.8 55.0
Kendall Gray Kendall Gray C 29 23.5 5.5 3.5 0.4 0.3 2.6 1.4 0.7 10.3 -58 15 -3.9 -7.1 31.6 0 75.0 -1.1 385.4 31.6
Albert Thomas Albert Thomas G 30 22.3 4.9 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 1.7 1.0 7.8 -69 17 -4.1 -8.0 55.2 66.7 75.0 -1.27 213.0 58.6
Miles Bowman Miles Bowman F 32 12.7 4.2 3.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.3 7.2 -51 18 -2.8 -9.1 44.4 0.0 75.0 0.08 472.7 44.4
Michael Coger Michael Coger - 3 4.0 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 4.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jabari Joyner Jabari Joyner G 22 7.5 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.2 2.6 -5 11 -0.5 -2.5 60.0 50.0 0 -0.26 420.0 80.0
Chris Lewis Chris Lewis - 13 6.4 1.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.2 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Cahli Thomas Cahli Thomas G 16 7.2 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.9 -2 9 -0.2 -2.1 33.3 0.0 100.0 -0.8 167.2 33.3
Jordan Lawson Jordan Lawson G 21 6.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 -15 12 -1.2 -14.3 0 0 0 -0.81 0 0
Nick Doyle Nick Doyle G 15 6.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 2.1 -6 6 -1.0 -7.8 100.0 0 0 -1.7 850.0 100.0
Scott Sill Scott Sill F 11 5.5 1.0 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 - - - - 0 0 0 -2.27 0 0
Brandon Oliver Brandon Oliver G 23 6.9 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.5 -6 13 -0.5 -3.5 0 0 0 -1.44 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG