D'Youville
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 934 (#425) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 936 (#378) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 966 (#531) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -7.3 (#234) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -4.7 (#431) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.360 (#421) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.362 (#315) | NetEff -4.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.250 (#491) | AdjNet -9.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.252 (#491) | AdjNet -9.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.395 (#468) | AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 63.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.448 (#470) | AdjO 56.7 | AdjD 59.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.372 (#474) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.383 (#468) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 910 (#368) | RD 111 | GP 19 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Assumption | L | 43 - 63 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | American Int'l | L | 46 - 72 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Edinboro | L | 50 - 65 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Chestnut Hill | W | 76 - 61 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Mansfield | W | 74 - 58 |
| 2025-12-05 | vs | Molloy | W | 89 - 79 |
| 2025-12-07 | vs | Queens (NY) | W | 78 - 64 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 71 - 38 |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Mercy | L | 50 - 66 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Lake Erie | W | 60 - 50 |
| 2026-01-11 | vs | Dist. Columbia | W | 68 - 60 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Molloy | L | 65 - 69 |
| 2026-01-18 | @ | Queens (NY) | L | 56 - 57 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Daemen | L | 45 - 63 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Roberts Wesleyan | W | 53 - 39 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | Staten Island | W | 68 - 54 |
| 2026-02-08 | @ | Dist. Columbia | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly O'Toole | - | 16 | 33.8 | 15.9 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 32 | 1.7 | 7.6 | 45.5 | 45.3 | 78.4 | -1.79 | 61.9 | 59.5 |
| Alyssa Neumann | - | 15 | 24.1 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 8.9 | 9.2 | -64 | -3.6 | -23.8 | 55.2 | 26.1 | 82.4 | -2.34 | 59.4 | 57.5 |
| Aliviya Vallone Russell | - | 10 | 27.3 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 56 | 4.3 | 41.5 | 37.5 | 31.4 | 68.0 | -0.03 | 51.1 | 47.5 |
| Morgan Giancaterino | - | 14 | 31.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 20 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 43.7 | 17.4 | 70.8 | 1.26 | 48.9 | 45.6 |
| Megan Fedor | - | 12 | 25.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 18 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 41.9 | 28.6 | 80.0 | 1.51 | 49.6 | 45.2 |
| Ava Pearson | - | 16 | 21.4 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 15 | 0.8 | 5.2 | 33.0 | 34.3 | 85.7 | -0.45 | 47.8 | 46.0 |
| Xanthippi Karatasiou | - | 16 | 21.2 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 4.6 | -36 | -1.9 | -10.1 | 33.7 | 39.6 | 71.4 | -0.55 | 46.0 | 44.8 |
| Samantha Ruhlman | - | 16 | 15.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 30 | 1.6 | 11.6 | 37.9 | 27.3 | 0.0 | -1.85 | 45.0 | 45.7 |
| Allie Hall | - | 16 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 80 | 4.2 | 35.9 | 38.8 | 0 | 52.6 | 0.98 | 41.8 | 38.8 |
| Trinity Small | - | 10 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -12 | -1.0 | -25.8 | 31.2 | 37.5 | 75.0 | -0.23 | 45.0 | 40.6 |
| Savannah Kroener | - | 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.2 | 8.9 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 80.0 | -0.17 | 57.7 | 33.3 |
| Karly Holm | - | 6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2 | -0.2 | -21.7 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.92 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Kendall Parker | - | 3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -57 | -3.2 | -11.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.91 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Lucie Hatcher | - | 7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | -8 | -0.8 | -35.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.15 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Madison Clark | - | 4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18 | 3.0 | 122.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG