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Covenant

Season:
Also known as: Covenant
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 873 (#434) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 813 (#529) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 999 (#446) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 898 (#613) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -13.1 (#311) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -10.4 (#503) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -17.1 (#578) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.193 (#588) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.8 More → 0.737 (#262) NetEff +7.8
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -18.8 More → 0.062 (#509) NetEff -18.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -26.4 More → 0.045 (#609) AdjNet -26.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -26.9 More → 0.040 (#609) AdjNet -26.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 70.1 More → 0.163 (#614) AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 70.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 64.9 More → 0.411 (#526) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 64.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 54.4 | AdjD 63.0 More → 0.316 (#591) AdjO 54.4 | AdjD 63.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.321 (#511) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.258 (#561) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.323 (#516) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.267 (#559) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 23 More → 838 (#466) RD 99 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.