Concordia-St. Paul
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1219 (#23) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1188 (#47) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1225 (#8) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +21.9 (#15) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +24.5 (#53) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.858 (#206) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.788 (#192) | NetEff +10.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.985 (#86) | AdjNet +35.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.987 (#85) | AdjNet +36.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.894 (#81) | AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 53.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.819 (#22) | AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 57.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.917 (#25) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.911 (#22) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1284 (#20) | RD 96 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Fort Hays St. | L | 78 - 84 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Missouri Western | W | 78 - 64 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Truman St. | W | 82 - 60 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Maryville (MO) | W | 81 - 69 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Winona St. | L | 75 - 77 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Michigan Tech | W | 78 - 61 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | St. Cloud St. | W | 75 - 50 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Minnesota St. | L | 66 - 104 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Sioux Falls | L | 77 - 79 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Augustana (SD) | W | 80 - 67 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Winona St. | W | 87 - 85 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | W | 94 - 74 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Jamestown | W | 83 - 50 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Northern St. | W | 78 - 51 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Bemidji St. | W | 64 - 42 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Minn. Duluth | W | 71 - 63 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Minot St. | W | 75 - 54 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Mary | W | 83 - 69 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Augustana (SD) | W | 80 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 81 - 60 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydia Haack | - | 21 | 34.4 | 18.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 13.6 | 16.9 | 183 | 8.3 | 27.5 | 47.2 | 42.7 | 82.2 | 1.95 | 59.6 | 54.4 |
| Lauren Wilson | - | 21 | 29.4 | 17.5 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 12.4 | 16.8 | 164 | 7.5 | 28.7 | 48.5 | 25.5 | 68.2 | 1.63 | 56.4 | 51.2 |
| Leah Dengerud | - | 21 | 30.3 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 188 | 8.5 | 31.1 | 41.8 | 35.4 | 79.6 | 3.95 | 57.1 | 52.7 |
| Ashley Schuelke | - | 21 | 29.9 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 161 | 7.3 | 26.8 | 39.5 | 27.0 | 75.0 | 3.11 | 47.1 | 45.5 |
| Emma Mommsen | - | 21 | 22.7 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 82 | 3.7 | 15.8 | 50.0 | 0 | 66.7 | -2.33 | 53.0 | 50.0 |
| Avery Moeller | - | 21 | 19.1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 131 | 6.0 | 27.4 | 41.5 | 37.2 | 89.5 | 2.86 | 58.2 | 55.1 |
| Lauren Feddema | - | 16 | 17.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 96 | 5.6 | 45.1 | 40.3 | 35.7 | 82.4 | 0.03 | 53.9 | 50.0 |
| Ava Thompson | - | 14 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 85 | 6.5 | 38.2 | 27.9 | 25.0 | 41.7 | 1.54 | 37.3 | 36.0 |
| Norah Danielson | - | 16 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 38 | 2.2 | 24.2 | 29.2 | 14.3 | 41.7 | -1.17 | 35.9 | 33.3 |
| Ayana Bousum | - | 13 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 41 | 3.4 | 50.9 | 38.9 | 50.0 | 0 | -1.53 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Ella Campbell | - | 11 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -13 | -0.5 | -4.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -1.8 | 37.0 | 20.0 |
| Cassidy Pitzl | - | 8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -8 | -1.0 | -37.6 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.44 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Kierstin Kriewaldt | - | 9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -13 | -1.4 | -49.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.18 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cierra Kortan | - | 1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ella Kuhlman | - | 1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG