Colorado College - 2022

Model Outputs

2021-2022

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More →	993 (#424)	HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More →	-12.2 (#674)	HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More →	-22.2 (#588)	HCA +2.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.6 \| AdjD 70.8 More →	0.428 (#522)	AdjO 67.6 \| AdjD 70.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.146 (#583)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.191 (#583)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 \| GP 2 More →	878 (#523)	RD 350 \| GP 2

2022 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2021-11-15	@	Northern Colorado Bears	L	53 - 93
2021-11-22	@	Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	L	54 - 99

2022 Roster

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Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
S. Ruegg	-	2	17.5	12.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.5	3.5	12.0	-	-	-	71.4	33.3	0	-0.41	171.4	78.6
A. Price	-	2	19.0	10.5	2.5	0.0	1.0	0.5	2.5	5.5	6.5	-	-	-	63.6	0	50.0	0.41	82.3	63.6
L. Magnus	-	2	15.5	6.0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.5	2.0	5.0	-	-	-	25.0	33.3	0	-0.75	150.0	37.5
E. Romero	-	2	17.0	5.5	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	2.5	4.0	-	-	-	20.0	0.0	0	-0.32	110.0	20.0
K. Dittman	-	2	7.5	2.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.5	1.0	-	-	-	33.3	50.0	0	-	83.3	50.0
Alex Russo	-	2	13.5	0.0	1.0	0.5	1.0	0.5	0.5	2.0	0.5	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0	-	0.0	0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG