Coast Guard
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1060 (#121) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1043 (#258) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1039 (#220) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.1 (#193) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.6 (#344) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.855 (#267) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.653 (#301) | NetEff +4.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.774 (#281) | AdjNet +10.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.783 (#280) | AdjNet +10.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.638 (#279) | AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 63.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.592 (#240) | AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 62.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.566 (#322) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.571 (#321) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1061 (#240) | RD 96 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Gordon | W | 93 - 68 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Hartford | L | 60 - 68 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Sarah Lawrence | W | 101 - 46 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | John Jay | W | 78 - 62 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Suffolk | L | 66 - 67 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Wesleyan (CT) | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Rhode Island Col. | L | 70 - 86 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Mary Hardin-Baylor | L | 58 - 64 |
| 2026-01-13 | vs | Amherst | W | 83 - 76 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Smith | L | 48 - 76 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Babson | W | 68 - 50 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Wellesley | L | 58 - 59 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Salve Regina | W | 84 - 70 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Clark (MA) | L | 56 - 63 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Springfield | L | 47 - 62 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Emerson | W | 83 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorothy Stotts | - | 15 | 35.3 | 19.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 16.9 | 10.1 | 63 | 3.9 | 11.7 | 41.7 | 39.8 | 76.9 | 1.09 | 54.0 | 51.0 |
| Olivia Wright | - | 16 | 22.7 | 13.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 109 | 6.1 | 31.3 | 44.0 | 30.9 | 77.5 | 3.38 | 54.1 | 50.8 |
| Colleen Finnegan | - | 16 | 20.3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 97 | 5.4 | 26.8 | 40.7 | 18.9 | 65.9 | 2.59 | 48.7 | 44.0 |
| Georgia Pauli | - | 6 | 23.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 44 | 8.8 | 69.6 | 34.7 | 31.8 | 100.0 | 0.01 | 45.5 | 41.8 |
| Elliot Geer | - | 16 | 29.0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 64 | 3.6 | 13.1 | 31.0 | 4.3 | 77.6 | 0.34 | 40.5 | 31.4 |
| Taylor Lynch | - | 16 | 28.6 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 95 | 5.3 | 21.9 | 36.5 | 18.8 | 64.3 | 0.49 | 42.7 | 40.9 |
| Ruby Miller | - | 16 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 46 | 2.6 | 27.4 | 42.9 | 40.0 | 85.7 | -1.76 | 57.5 | 55.7 |
| Farrah Peterein | - | 16 | 26.1 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 47 | 2.6 | 12.1 | 33.3 | 22.9 | 50.0 | -2.65 | 38.5 | 37.8 |
| Mackenzie Hilden | - | 15 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 15 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 52.5 | 0 | 76.5 | -1.55 | 57.9 | 52.5 |
| Anna Gredell | - | 14 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 58 | 3.9 | 45.3 | 28.6 | 8.3 | 66.7 | 1.47 | 34.3 | 30.4 |
| Julia Gallinger | - | 3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG